• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Foresight >Socio-technological scenarios of Japan's future energy issues in 2050 based on scanning-based foresight method
【24h】

Socio-technological scenarios of Japan's future energy issues in 2050 based on scanning-based foresight method

机译：基于扫描的前瞻方法的2050年日本未来能源问题的社会技术情景

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T). Design/methodology/approach - A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future. Findings - The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan's energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters. Originality/value - Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.
机译：目的-本文的目的是创建日本在2050年及以后的社会技术未来情景，并特别关注能源及其与科学技术的关系。设计/方法/方法-举办了基于基于扫描的预见方法（SBFM）的研讨会。参与者浏览了有关未来派主题的扫描材料，创建了社会变革方案。然后，通过结合社会变化情景和描述日本未来与能源有关的科学与技术的未来问题，产生了能源和社会情景。研究结果-具有不同科学和技术专长的参与者在2050年左右制作了日本能源社会的各种图像。基于这些描述，关于能源和社会情景的未来愿景在科学技术与未来需求之间的一致性方面与当前愿景有所不同侧重于社会意识的瞬变。在研讨会上发现了以社会为中心的观点和对自制技术的信心，与会人员认为，即使人力资源有限，也可以通过丰富的科学技术经验和专业知识来解决一些社会问题。还发现，每种情况都描绘了相对不久的将来的乐观看法，其中开发了与能源有关的创新技术，以优化个人满意度和社会效率。另一方面，我们发现有关气候变化和自然灾害的远景生存情景相当悲观。原创性/价值-来自多个领域的专家运用他们的见识来理解能源的未来，并从科学和技术角度描绘了与传统线性情景中出现的未来社会有所不同的未来社会的愿景在科技的使用及其局限性之间。还发现SBFM具有许多不确定性，有助于深入了解能源科技。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号