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Evaluating the quality of investment products: can expert judgment outsmart the market?

机译：评估投资产品的质量：专家的判断能超过市场吗？

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Purpose - This paper aims to deal with expert judgment and its predictive ability in the context of investment funds. The judgmental ratings awarder with a large set of experts was compared to a sample of the dynamic investment funds operating in Central and Eastern Europe with their objective performance, both past and future, relatively to the time of the forecast. Design/methodology/approach - Data on the survey sample enabled the authors to evaluate both ex post judgmental validity, i.e. how the experts reflected the previous performance of funds, and ex ante predictive accuracy, i. e. how well their judgments estimated the future performance of the fund. For this purpose, logistic regression for past values estimations and linear model for future values estimations was used. Findings - It was found that the experts (independent academicians, senior bank specialists and senior financial advisors) were only able to successfully reflect past annual returns of a five-year period, failing to reflect costs and annual volatility and, mainly, failing to predict any of the indicators on the same five-year horizon. Practical implications - The outcomes of this paper confirm that expert judgment should be used with caution in the context of financial markets and mainly in situations when domain knowledge is applicable. Procedures incorporating judgmental evaluations, such as individual investment advice, should be thoroughly reviewed in terms of client value-added, to eliminate potential anchoring bias. Originality/value - This paper sheds new light on the quality and nature of individual judgment produced by financial experts. These are prevalent in many situations influencing clients' decisionmaking, be it financial advice or multiple product contests. As such, our findings underline the need of scepticism when these judgments are taken into account.
机译：目的-本文旨在处理投资基金方面的专家判断及其预测能力。将具有大量专家的评判等级授予者与在中欧和东欧运作的动态投资基金的样本进行了比较，这些样本的过去和将来的客观表现（相对于预测时间）。设计/方法/方法-调查样本上的数据使作者能够评估事后判断的有效性，即专家如何反映以前的资金表现，以及事前预测的准确性，即e。他们的判断对基金未来表现的评价如何。为此，使用了过去值估计的逻辑回归和未来值估计的线性模型。调查结果-发现专家（独立院士，高级银行专家和高级财务顾问）只能成功反映过去五年的年度回报，无法反映成本和年度波动，并且主要是无法预测在相同的五年范围内的任何指标。实际意义-本文的结果确认，在金融市场的情况下，尤其是在适用领域知识的情况下，应谨慎使用专家判断。应当结合客户增值的内容，彻底审查包含判断性评估（例如个人投资建议）的程序，以消除潜在的定位偏差。原创性/价值-本文为金融专家个人判断的质量和性质提供了新的思路。在许多影响客户决策的情况下，这些都是很普遍的，无论是财务建议还是多种产品竞赛。因此，我们的发现强调了在考虑这些判断时需要持怀疑态度。

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