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Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods

机译：使用MicMac和软操作研究方法研究伊朗纺织业的未来研究

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Purpose - This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods.Design/methodology/approach - In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts' opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry's plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied. Findings - Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government's weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment.Originality/value - Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry's future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.
机译：目的 - 本研究旨在根据Micmac和软操作研究方法制定伊朗纺织业的探索性情景。在这项研究中，Design/Methodology/Approch-在本研究中，制定合理的情景，文学评论和外部专家对该领域的意见具有通过Delphi方法和不确定性问卷收集。在利用最重要的不确定性之后，通过共同思维研讨会在专家的帮助下映射了纺织业的合理情景。结果表明，两个因素，包括商业氛围和世界贸易组织（WTO）的会员，比其他因素发挥更重要的作用。这两个因素被认为是制定方案的制定。为了制定合理的情景，应用软系统方法，是一种软操作研究方法。调查结果 - 基于结果，提出了四种情况。这些方案包括Elysium方案，HADES场景，Tatarus情景和Sisyphus情景。在Elysium情景中，商业氛围有所改善，伊朗已获得WTO的会员资格。在Hades情景中，伊朗加入了WTO，但由于政府的弱点和不活动和关键的决策者，尚未制定所需的准备工作。在Tatarus情景中，伊朗不是WTO成员，而且商业氛围是灾难性的。在Sisyphus情景中，政府对更好的商业环境采取合理的行动。纺织行业的民法/价值制定合理情景是对该行业的主要受益者和行动者的良好贡献，因此他们可以提供灵活的基于准备的课程面对环境。纺织工业的未来研究熟悉了该行业的行动者和受益者，其中包括影响这个行业未来的程序和驱动力，它将确定该领域的演员的各种情况。

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