ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF SCENARIOS IN SCENARIO PLANNING

Thomas J. Chermack

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ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF SCENARIOS IN SCENARIO PLANNING

机译：在场景规划中评估场景的质量

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The scenario planning literature covers a variety of perspectives and views on how scenario planning is and should be conducted. Indeed, numerous books on the topic are particularly aimed at practitioners. One topic of increasing interest is the issue of how to evaluate or assess scenario planning efforts. It has been suggested that scenario planning should result in increased financial performance, but it is difficult to isolate the forces behind any improved financial performance. Other methods for evaluating scenario planning have included examining participant learning and assessing organizational reaction time to particular events. It has even been suggested that effective scenario planning will often be "under the radar," as an organization using this technology would theoretically be able to anticipate any fundamental shifts and make adjustments before problems are introduced.

机译：场景规划文献涵盖了关于场景规划如何进行以及应该如何进行的各种观点和看法。确实，有关该主题的许多书籍都特别针对从业者。越来越引起人们关注的一个主题是如何评估或评估方案规划工作的问题。有人建议，方案规划应提高财务业绩，但很难隔离财务业绩改善背后的力量。评估方案计划的其他方法包括检查参与者的学习情况和评估组织对特定事件的反应时间。甚至有人建议，有效的方案规划通常会“处于雷达之下”，因为使用该技术的组织从理论上将能够预测任何根本性的变化并在引入问题之前进行调整。

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《Futures research quarterly》 |2006年第4期|23-35|共13页
作者
Thomas J. Chermack;
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Colorado State University. Fort Collins, Colorado;

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正文语种 eng
中图分类自然科学总论;
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2. Using Scenarios to Develop Crisis Managers: Applications of Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training [J] . Jason B. Moats, Thomas J. Chermack, Larry M. Dooley Advances in developing human resources . 2008,第3期

机译：使用方案开发危机管理者：方案规划和基于方案的培训的应用
3. Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): development and application of computer modeling to selected National Planning Scenarios for high-consequence events. [J] . Scheulen JJ, Thanner MH, Hsu EB, Annals of Emergency Medicine: Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians and the University Association for Emergency Medicine . 2009,第2期

机译：电子大规模伤亡评估和计划方案（EMCAPS）：针对严重后果事件，将计算机建模开发和应用到选定的国家计划方案中。
4. Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Metropolitan Transportation Planning Scenarios:Assessing Trade-Offs Between Business-As-Usual and Alternate Sustainable Community Designs [C] . Asim Zia, Chris Koliba, Tiyasha De Pinto Transportation Research Board Annual meeting . 2012

机译：大城市交通规划方案的多标准评估：评估常规经营与替代性可持续社区设计之间的权衡
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6. Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies [O] . Eric Koomen, Vasco Diogo -1

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7. Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics**The work presented in this study was jointly funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS), and the European Commission within the projects ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modelling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making, ref. no. 08/381), AMBER (Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem Response, ref. no. 08/390) and INFLOW (Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Baltic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios, ref. no. 2008–1885). All three projects are part of the BONUS+program (http://www.bonusportal.org). [O] . Meier H.E. Markus, Höglund Anders, Döscher Ralf, 2011

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8. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario No. 2-Safety and Security Scenario [R] . Mugridge, D., Avis, P., Race, P. 2011

机译：北极规划方案：情景2 - 安全和安保情景

ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF SCENARIOS IN SCENARIO PLANNING

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