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Towards a bifurcated future in the US-China relationship: What is in it for the EU?

机译：在美国 - 中国的关系中走向分叉的未来：欧盟的内容是什么？

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摘要

By identifying recurring historical patterns, one could extrapolate future developments. However, drivers and possible events could trigger deviations from the extrapolation of historical patterns. Therefore, in order to enhance the value of the long cycles theory for futures studies one has to use appropriate foresight methods, including the Trend Impact Analysis and the Scenario Building. Firstly, this paper identifies eight most important drivers as far as the relationship between the US and China is concerned. Secondly, it quantifies the expected shifts in the distribution of power discussing their expected impact on the relationship between the current dominant power and its main challenger by using four indexes. Thirdly, it puts forward a list of possible events, evaluating their probability of occurrence. Last but not least, it posits three alternative scenarios for the US-China relationship and discusses each of them from the perspective of EU interests. The paper concludes that at present we have a bifurcated future in the US-China relationship, where both cooperative and confrontational futures are possible. It is in the EU's interest to back the US, in order to secure a smoother transition of power and strengthen rather than weaken the transatlantic link.
机译：通过确定经常性的历史模式，可以推断未来的发展。然而，司机和可能的事件可能会引发与历史模式外推的偏差。因此，为了提高期货研究的长期循环理论的价值，必须使用适当的预见方法，包括趋势影响分析和场景建设。首先，就美国和中国之间的关系而言，本文确定了八个最重要的司机。其次，它量量化了电力分布的预期变化讨论了它们对目前主导权力与其主要挑战者之间关系的预期影响，使用四个指标。第三，它提出了一个可能的事件列表，评估其发生的概率。最后但并非最不重要的是，它为美中的关系提供了三种替代方案，并从欧盟兴趣的角度讨论了他们中的每一个。本文的结论是，目前我们在美国 - 中国的关系中有一个分叉的未来，合作和对抗期货也是可能的。正是在欧盟回国的兴趣，以确保力量的更平滑和加强而不是削弱跨大西洋环节。

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  • 来源
    《Futures》 |2021年第1期|102634.1-102634.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Pop Adrian; Grigoras Razvan;

  • 作者单位

    Natl Univ Polit Sci & Publ Adm 30A Expozitiei Blvd Sect 1 RO-012104 Bucharest Romania;

    Natl Def Univ Carol I 68-72 Panduri St Sect 5 RO-050662 Bucharest Romania;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Long cycles; Trend impact analysis; Scenario building; US; China; EU;

    机译：长期循环;趋势​​影响分析;情景建设;我们;中国;欧盟;

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