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Climate change and the Syrian civil war, Part Ⅱ: The Jazira's agrarian crisis

机译:气候变化与叙利亚内战,第二部分:Jazira的农业危机

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This article is the second in a series on the alleged links between climate change, drought and the onset of Syria's civil war. In a previous article it was argued that there is little merit to the Syria-climate conflict thesis, including no clear evidence that drought-related migration contributed to civil war onset. Building on this earlier work, the present article investigates an issue which was not fully analysed in the previous one: the nature and causes of the pre-civil war agrarian crisis in Syria's northeast Jazira region, and especially in the governorate of Hasakah. This crisis is usually represented as rooted essentially in a severe multi-year drought which, it is claimed, led to multiple crop failures and in turn large-scale migration. Here it is argued, by contrast, that the central causes of Hasakah's agrarian crisis were long-term and structural, involving three main factors: extreme water resource degradation; deepening rural poverty; and underpinning these, specific features of Syria's and Hasakah's politics and political economy. The article contends, most notably, that the exceptional severity of Hasakah's crisis was a function of the nationwide collapse of Syria's agrarian and rentier model of state-building and development, combined with Hasakah's distinctive political geography as an ethnically contested borderland and frontier zone. I thus conclude that rather than supporting narratives of environmental scarcity-induced conflict, the Syrian case actually confirms the opposite: namely, political ecologists' insistence on the centrality of the political, and of conflict, in causing environmental scarcities and insecurities.
机译:本文是关于气候变化,干旱与叙利亚内战爆发之间的所谓联系的系列文章的第二篇。在上一篇文章中,有人指出,叙利亚与气候冲突的论点毫无价值,其中没有明确证据表明与干旱有关的迁徙助长了内战。在此早期工作的基础上,本文研究了一个在前一个工作中尚未完全分析的问题:叙利亚东北部Jazira地区,特别是在Hasakah省的内战前农业危机的性质和原因。通常认为,这场危机主要源于严重的多年干旱,据称该干旱导致多种作物歉收,进而导致大规模移民。相比之下,这里认为,哈萨卡邦农业危机的根本原因是长期的和结构性的,涉及三个主要因素:极端的水资源退化;加深农村贫困;并支持叙利亚和哈萨克邦政治和政治经济的这些特定特征。该文章认为,最值得注意的是,哈萨克邦危机的严重程度是叙利亚在全国范围内建立国家和发展模式的农业和食利者模式崩溃的结果,再加上哈萨克邦具有独特的政治地理条件,是一个受到种族争议的边境地区和边境地区。因此,我得出的结论是,叙利亚案件并未支持对环境稀缺性引发的冲突的叙述,实际上证实了相反的事实:即,政治生态学家坚持造成环境稀缺性和不安全感的政治和冲突的中心性。

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