Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Kai Leitemo

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Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

机译：开放经济通货膨胀预测目标

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We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon. We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency.

机译：我们在开放经济环境中研究简单的通胀预测目标。简单的通胀预测目标意味着设定一个利率，如果在整个预测目标范围内保持不变，则将产生等于通胀目标的有条件通胀预测。我们发现最佳的预测目标范围相对较短（一年）。更长的视野并不能持续地改善产出的稳定性，的确会增加汇率的波动性和贸易部门的波动性。瞄准程序实质上不如最佳的预先承诺政策。而且，目标程序不一定确定理性期望的平衡，并且会受到时间不一致的影响。

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来源
《German economic review》 |2006年第1期|p.35-64|共30页
作者
Kai Leitemo;
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作者单位

Norwegian School of Management BI;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类 f;
关键词
inflation targeting; forecast targeting; monetary policy; small open economy;

机译：通胀目标;预测目标;货币政策;小型开放经济;

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1. Relative Inflation-forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro [J] . Lucjan T, Orlowski Journal of policy modeling . 2008,第6期

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2. An alternative model to the open-economy “new consensus” for the analysis of inflation targeting [J] . Ricardo Summa EconomiA . 2016,第3期

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4. Drug target interaction predictions using PU- Leaming under different experimental setting for four formulations namely known drug target pair prediction, drug prediction, target prediction and unknown drug target pair prediction [C] . Hetal Rahul Rajpura, Alioune Ngom IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence in Bioinformatics and Computational Biology . 2018

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5. Quantification of qualitative survey data and small open-economy inflation targeting models. [D] . Xia, Lin. 2005

机译：定性调查数据和小型开放经济通胀目标模型的量化。
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7. Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting [O] . Kai Leitemo 2006

机译：开放经济通货膨胀预测目标

Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

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