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Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function

机译：估计欧洲央行政策反应功能

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This paper estimates the policy reaction function of the European Central Bank in the first four years of EMU using an ordered probit model which accounts for the fact that central bank rates are set at multiples of 25 basis points. Starting from a baseline model which mimics the Taylor rule, the impacts of different economic variables on interest rate decisions are analysed. It is concluded that the monetary growth measure which was announced by the ECB as the first pillar of their monetary strategy does not play an outstanding role for the actual interest rate decisions. More sophisticated measures like the money overhang which uses information from both pillars are better suited. Overall, it is concluded that the revision of the monetary policy strategy in May 2003 which implied a downgrading of the first pillar will not induce any observable changes in monetary policy decisions.
机译：本文使用有序概率模型估算了欧洲中央银行在欧洲货币联盟前四年的政策反应功能，这说明了中央银行利率设定为25个基点的倍数这一事实。从模仿泰勒规则的基准模型开始，分析了不同经济变量对利率决策的影响。可以得出的结论是，欧洲央行宣布的货币增长措施是其货币战略的第一支柱，在实际利率决策中并未发挥显著作用。更复杂的方法，例如利用两个支柱的信息的货币悬赏，更适合。总体而言，得出的结论是，2003年5月对货币政策战略的修订暗示第一支柱的降级不会导致货币政策决策发生任何可观察到的变化。

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