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首页> 外文期刊>Global and planetary change >Predicted areas of potential distributions of alpine wetlands under different scenarios in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China
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Predicted areas of potential distributions of alpine wetlands under different scenarios in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

机译：青藏高原不同情景下高山湿地潜在分布预测面积

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摘要

Wetlands are vulnerable ecosystems to climate change for they would normally adapt slowly to keep pace with changing environmental conditions especially wetlands located at high altitudes which are under threat of severe warming. In this paper, we used distribution data of four types of wetlands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and ensemble habitat distribution models (HDMs) to assess the potential impacts of climate change under three IPCC scenarios. The baseline year was 2000s and the scenarios were used for 3 periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) at a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. The simulation results show that severe warming will happen in mid-21st century and annual average temperature will be above 0 degrees C. Areas climatically suitable for alpine wetlands tend to shift and shrink generally in the QTP in the future. Even under the optimistic scenario, the total area of wetland is predicted to decline by 35.7%. Nearly all wet meadow and saltmarsh will disappear under all scenarios in the Qiangtang basin. Vital functions of alpine wetlands such as carbon sequestration, water maintain, and habitats provide will be at severe risk. This research provides valuable information for the future conservation of the alpine wetlands within the QTP. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：湿地是易受气候变化影响的生态系统，因为它们通常会缓慢适应以适应不断变化的环境条件，尤其是处于高海拔地区的湿地，那里受到严重变暖的威胁。在本文中，我们使用了青藏高原（QTP）的四种类型的湿地的分布数据和整体生境分布模型（HDMs）来评估三种IPCC情景下气候变化的潜在影响。基准年是2000年代，这些场景用于3个时期（2020年代，2050年代和2080年代），空间分辨率为1 x 1 km。模拟结果表明，在21世纪中叶将发生严重的变暖，年平均温度将超过0摄氏度。气候上适合高山湿地的区域在未来的QTP中通常会发生移动和收缩。即使在乐观的情况下，预计湿地总面积也会减少35.7％。在tang塘盆地的所有情况下，几乎所有湿草甸和盐沼都将消失。高山湿地的重要功能，例如固碳，维持水和提供栖息地，将面临严重风险。这项研究为将来在QTP内的高山湿地保护提供了有价值的信息。 （C）2014 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Global and planetary change》 |2014年第decaptaa期|77-85|共9页
  • 作者

    Xue Zhenshan; Zhang Zhongsheng; Lu Xianguo; Zou Yuanchun; Lu Yonglei; Jiang Ming; Tong Shouzheng; Zhang Kun;

  • 作者单位

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Forestry Dept Tibet, Inst Tibetan Forestry Survey & Planning, Lhasa 850000, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Key Lab Wetland Ecol & Environm, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;

    Southwest Forestry Univ, Natl Plateau Wetlands Res Ctr, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    alpine wetlands; BIOMOD; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; habitat distribution models; climate change;

    机译：高山湿地;BIOMOD;青藏高原;生境分布模型;气候变化;

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