...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Global and planetary change >Dry spell characteristics over Canada in a changing climate as simulated by the Canadian RCM
【24h】

Dry spell characteristics over Canada in a changing climate as simulated by the Canadian RCM

机译：加拿大RCM模拟的气候变化中加拿大的干法术特征

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Dry spells, defined as extended periods of dry days, can serve as indicators of drought conditions, and are often used in the management of water resource systems, particularly for agriculture. In this study, the Canadian RCM (CRCM) projected changes to dry spell characteristics over Canada, for the April-September period, and their validation in current climate, are presented. Two CRCM integrations are considered; one validation integration for the 1961-2000 period and a transient climate change integration for the 1961-2100 period, corresponding to the SRES A2 scenario. The ability of the model to simulate dry spell characteristics, i.e. mean number of dry days, mean number of dry spells and selected return levels of maximum dry spell durations, and associated errors are assessed through comparison of integrations for the current 1971-2000 April-September period with those observed, derived from the observed precipitation records. Results suggest an underestimation of the mean number of dry days and 10- and 30-year return levels, while the model slightly overestimates the mean number of dry spells, at the grid-cell scale. Analysis of projected changes to dry spell characteristics for the future 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to 1971-2000 period, suggests significant changes, particularly for the southern Prairies, where both mean number of dry days and return levels of maximum dry spell durations are projected to increase. Furthermore, combined analysis of changes to the amount of precipitation and mean number of dry days also suggests potential increase in drought conditions in future climates in this already drought-prone region for the April-September period. In addition to southern Prairies, this study also suggests significant changes to dry spell characteristics for other regions of Canada.
机译：干旱期被定义为干旱天的延长期，可以作为干旱状况的指标，通常用于水资源系统的管理中，特别是用于农业。在这项研究中，加拿大RCM（CRCM）预测了4月至9月期间加拿大干法术特征的变化，并提出了在当前气候下的验证。考虑了两个CRCM集成；一次是1961-2000年的验证整合，另一次是1961-2100年的短暂气候变化整合，与SRES A2情景相对应。通过比较当前1971-2000年4月的积分，评估了该模型模拟干燥拼写特征的能力，即干燥天数的平均数，干燥拼写的平均数以及最大干燥拼写持续时间的选定收益水平以及相关的误差从观测到的降水记录中得出的9月期与观测值一致。结果表明，在网格单元尺度上，平均干旱天数以及10年和30年回报水平的平均数被低估了，而该模型则稍微高估了干旱天数的平均数。相对于1971-2000年，对未来2041-2070年和2071-2100年的干旱法术特征预计变化的分析表明，存在重大变化，特别是对于南部大草原地区，其平均干旱天数和最高返还水平干法术持续时间预计会增加。此外，对降水量变化和平均干旱天数变化的综合分析还表明，在这个已经干旱多发的地区，4月至9月期间，未来气候中干旱条件的潜在增加。除了南部的大草原地区，这项研究还表明加拿大其他地区的干旱法术特征发生了重大变化。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号