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Possible Impacts Of 21st Century Climate On Vegetation In Central And West Africa

机译：21世纪气候对中非和西部植被的可能影响

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摘要

We evaluate the possible effects of climate change on vegetation in Central and West Africa. We chose two climate scenarios from the IPCC Third Assessment Report, ECHAM3 with scenario B2 and HADCM3 model with scenario A1FI, to force the dynamic vegetation model IBIS. Both climate scenarios are warmer everywhere in the domain, wetter around Lake Chad and drier along the Atlantic coast. We chose not to consider the physiological effect of increased CO_2 on plant production and kept CO_2 fixed at 350 ppmv. Our simulations of the end of the 21st century result in less extensive tropical forests and reduced leaf area index and net primary productivity (NPP) where forest remains. At the northern and southern limits of the forest there is also a switch between tropical evergreen types and tropical deciduous types. With one climate scenario, vegetation cover and NPP increase around Lake Chad. The simulated climate change also results in widespread increase in evapotranspiration and reduction in runoff and NPP (proxies for important ecosystem services, like freshwater availability, food, timber and fuel supply) along the Atlantic coast. Additional simulations where only one variable is changed show that temperature, through its effect on evapotranspiration and NPP plays a crucial role in vegetation change in the region.
机译：我们评估了气候变化对中非和西非植被的可能影响。我们从IPCC第三次评估报告中选择了两种气候情景，即具有情景B2的ECHAM3和具有情景A1FI的HADCM3模型，以强制采用动态植被模型IBIS。两种气候情景在该地区的每个地方都较温暖，乍得湖周围较湿，大西洋沿岸较干燥。我们选择不考虑增加CO_2对植物生产的生理影响，而将CO_2固定在350 ppmv的水平。我们对21世纪末的模拟结果导致热带森林的面积减少，并使保留森林的叶面积指数和净初级生产力（NPP）降低。在森林的北部和南部边界，热带常绿类型和热带落叶类型之间也有转换。在一种气候情景下，乍得湖周围的植被覆盖和NPP会增加。模拟的气候变化还导致大西洋沿岸的蒸散量普遍增加，径流和NPP（重要生态系统服务的代理，例如淡水供应，食物，木材和燃料供应的代理）减少。仅改变了一个变量的其他模拟表明，温度通过其对蒸散量和NPP的影响，对该区域的植被变化起着至关重要的作用。

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