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Political determinants of progress in the MDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa

机译：撒哈拉以南非洲千年发展目标进展的政治决定因素

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摘要

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lagged furthest behind in achieving targets for the millennium development goals (MDG). We investigate the hypothesis that its slow progress is influenced by political factors. Longitudinal data on three health MDG indicators: under-five mortality, maternal mortality and HIV prevalence rates were collated from 1990 to 2012 in 48 countries. Countries were grouped into geo-political and eco-political groups. Groupings were based on conflict trends in geographical regions and the International Monetary Fund's classification of SSA countries based on gross national income and development assistance respectively. Cumulative progress in each group was derived and main effects tested using ANOVA. Correlation analysis was conducted between political variables - POLITY 2, fragile state index (FSI), voter turnout rates, civil liberty scores (CLS) and the health variables. Our results suggest a significant main effect of eco-political and geo-political groups on some of the health variables. Political conflict as measured by FSI and political participation as measured by CLS were stronger predictors of slow progress in reducing under-five mortality rates and maternal mortality ratios. Our findings highlight the need for further research on political determinants of mortality in SSA. Cohesive effort should focus on strengthening countries' political, economic and social capacities in order to achieve sustainable goals beyond 2015.
机译：撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）在实现千年发展目标（MDG）的目标方面落后于最远。我们调查的假设是它的缓慢发展受到政治因素的影响。 1990年至2012年，在48个国家/地区收集了有关三个千年发展目标健康指标的纵向数据：五岁以下死亡率，孕产妇死亡率和艾滋病毒流行率。各国分为地缘政治和生态政治团体。分组的依据是地理区域的冲突趋势，国际货币基金组织分别根据国民总收入和发展援助对撒哈拉以南非洲国家进行了分类。得出各组的累积进展，并使用方差分析测试主要效果。在政治变量（政体2，脆弱国家指数（FSI），选民投票率，公民自由得分（CLS））和健康变量之间进行了相关分析。我们的结果表明，生态政治团体和地缘政治团体对某些健康变量具有重大的主要影响。 FSI衡量的政治冲突和CLS衡量的政治参与是降低五岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率的缓慢进展的有力预测。我们的发现强调了有必要对SSA中死亡率的政治决定因素进行进一步研究。团结一致的努力应着重于加强各国的政治，经济和社会能力，以实现2015年后的可持续目标。

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