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Policy Representation of a Parliament: The Case of the German Bundestag 2013 Elections

机译：议会的政策代表：以德国联邦议院2013年选举为例

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Since voters are often swayed more by the charisma, personal image and communication skills of the individual candidates standing for election than by the parties' political manifestos, they may cast votes that are actually in opposition to their policy preferences. Such a type of behavior, known as 'irrational voting', results in the election of representatives who do not correspond exactly to the voters' own views. To illustrate this, we consider the 28 German parties that took part in the 2013 Bundestag (federal) election and compare their positions on 36 topical issues with the results of public opinion polls. Then we construct the party and coalition indices of popularity (the average percentage of the population represented) and universality (frequency in representing a majority). In particular, we find that the 2013 election winner, the conservative union CDU/CSU with their 41.5 % of the votes, was the least representative among the 28 parties considered. The representativeness of the Bundestag is about 50 %, as if the correspondence with the electorate's preference on every policy issue had been decided by tossing a coin, meaning that the Bundestag's policy profile is independent of that of the electorate. The next paper, 'An election method to improve policy representation of a parliament' (Tangian 2016), suggests a possible way to surmount the problems revealed by our analysis. An alternative election procedure is proposed and hypothetically applied to the 2013 Bundestag, producing a considerable gain in its representativeness.
机译：由于选民通常更多地受到参选人的魅力，个人形象和沟通技巧的影响，而不是受到政党政治宣言的影响，因此选民实际上可能投票反对其政策偏好。这种行为被称为“非理性投票”，导致选举产生的代表与选民的观点不完全一致。为了说明这一点，我们考虑了参加2013年联邦议院（联邦）选举的28个德国政党，并将其在36个热门话题上的立场与民意测验的结果进行了比较。然后，我们构建党和联盟的人气指数（代表人口的平均百分比）和普遍性指数（代表多数的频率）。尤其是，我们发现，在2013年大选中获胜的保守党联盟CDU / CSU以41.5％的选票在所考虑的28个政党中代表最少。联邦议院的代表性约为50％，好像在每个政策问题上与选民的喜好对应关系是通过掷硬币决定的，这意味着联邦议院的政策概况与选民的概况无关。下一篇论文《改善议会政策代表性的选举方法》（Tangian，2016年）提出了解决我们的分析所揭示问题的一种可能方法。提出了一种替代选举程序，并假设将其应用于2013年联邦议院，其代表制可观。

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