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首页> 外文期刊>Harmful Algae >Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea: Correlations with environmental factors
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Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea: Correlations with environmental factors

机译：波罗的海的蓝藻水华：与环境因素的关系

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Massive cyanobacteria blooms occur almost every summer in the Baltic Sea but the capability to quantitatively predict their extent and intensity is poorly developed. Here we analyse statistical relationships between multi-decadal satellite-derived time series of the frequency of cyanobacteria surface accumulations (FCA) in the central Baltic Sea Proper and a suite of environmental variables. Over the decadal scale (similar to 5-20 years) FCA was highly correlated (R-2 similar to 0.69) with a set of biogeochemical variables related to the amount of phosphorus and hypoxia in bottom layers. Water temperature in the surface layer was also positively correlated with FCA at the decadal scale. In contrast, the inter-annual variations in FCA had no correlation with the biogeochemical variables. Instead, significant correlations were found with the solar shortwave direct flux in July and the sea-surface temperature, also in July. It thus appears that it is not possible to predict inter-annual fluctuations in cyanobacteria blooms from water chemistry. Moreover, environmental variables could only explain about 45% of the inter-annual variability in FCA, probably because year-to-year variations in FCA are significantly influenced by biological interactions.
机译：几乎每个夏天，波罗的海都会出现大量的蓝藻水华，但定量预测其程度和强度的能力却很差。在这里，我们分析了波罗的海中部蓝藻表面累积（FCA）频率的多年代卫星衍生时间序列与一系列环境变量之间的统计关系。在十年尺度上（大约5至20年），FCA与一组与底层磷和缺氧量有关的生物地球化学变量高度相关（R-2与0.69类似）。在十年尺度上，表层的水温也与FCA呈正相关。相反，FCA的年际变化与生物地球化学变量没有相关性。取而代之的是，发现与7月的太阳短波直接通量和7月的海面温度也有显着的相关性。因此，似乎不可能根据水化学方法来预测蓝藻水华的年际波动。此外，环境变量只能解释FCA年际变化的约45％，这可能是因为FCA的逐年变化受到生物相互作用的显着影响。

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