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All age-depth models are wrong, but are getting better

机译：所有年龄深度模型都是错误的，但是正在变得越来越好

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摘要

The construction of accurate age-depth relationships and a realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating late Quaternary stratigraphical proxy records. Four widely used age-depth modelling routines - CLAM, OxCal, Bacon and Bchron - were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produce mean age-depth models that are close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differs considerably among models. Age uncertainties are usually underestimated by CLAM, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron are often too large. With OxCal and Bacon, the setting of model-specific parameters influences the estimated uncertainties, which vary from too large to too small. The variability of sediment accumulation rates is underestimated by CLAM but overestimated by Bacon and Bchron. Bayesian age-depth models mainly improve the assessment of uncertainties of age-depth models.
机译：建立准确的年龄-深度关系并对其不确定性进行实际评估是比较和关联晚第四纪地层代用记录的基本前提之一。使用从脉状沉积物地层模拟的放射性碳数据测试了四种广泛使用的深度深度建模例程-CLAM，OxCal，Bacon和Bchron。所有方法均会产生接近真实阀门年龄的平均年龄深度模型，但不确定性估计在模型之间存在很大差异。 CLAM通常会低估年龄不确定性，而Bchron产生的年龄不确定性通常太大。使用OxCal和Bacon，特定于模型的参数的设置会影响估计的不确定性，不确定性的范围从太大到太小。 CLAM低估了沉积物积累速率的变化，而Bacon和Bchron高估了沉积物的变化率。贝叶斯年龄深度模型主要改善了年龄深度模型不确定性的评估。

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