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Residential Mortgage Default Behaviour in Hong Kong

机译：香港的住宅按揭违约行为

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摘要

Defaults in residential mortgages could be very costly and hazardous to market stability. This paper sets out to inform homebuyers, lenders and policy makers of the determinants of default, and constructs a mortgage default model to assist them in making mortgage applications, advancing loans, or implementing policies to maintain market stability. Residential default behaviour from 1998 to 2007 is studied and a model is constructed by means of Autoregressive Multiple Linear Regression. The results show that the lag term of default rate, gross mortgage rate, current loan-to-value ratio, change in debt-to-income ratio and Consumer Price Index are positively correlated with default rate; however, property price appreciation and change in the Hang Seng Index have a negative relationship with default rate.
机译：住房抵押贷款违约可能会造成很高的成本，并危及市场稳定。本文着手通知购房者，贷方和政策制定者违约的决定因素，并构建抵押贷款违约模型，以协助他们提出抵押申请，提前贷款或实施维持市场稳定的政策。研究了1998年至2007年的居民违约行为，并利用自回归多元线性回归建立了模型。结果表明，违约率，抵押贷款总利率，当期贷款价值比，债务收入比变化和居民消费价格指数的滞后项与违约率呈正相关。然而，房地产价格的上涨和恒生指数的变化与违约率之间存在负相关关系。

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