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Catastrophe Bond and Risk Modeling: A Review and Calibration Using Chinese Earthquake Loss Data

机译:巨灾债券和风险建模:使用中国地震损失数据的回顾和校准

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摘要

Earthquake risks are attracting increased attention as a result of recent catastrophic events such as the Wenchuan earthquake in China. This article aims to select, tailor, and develop loss modeling methods for catastrophic insurance. We review the state-of-the-art approaches in modeling catastrophe losses for catastrophe bonds' modeling and pricing. The methods are applied to the 1966-2008 losses resulted from the earthquakes in China. Various error measures are proposed for validating catastrophe modeling. Results suggest that the double exponential jump-diffusion model fits the data well.
机译:由于最近发生的灾难性事件(例如中国汶川地震),地震风险正引起越来越多的关注。本文旨在为灾难性保险选择,定制和开发损失建模方法。我们回顾了为巨灾债券的建模和定价建模巨灾损失的最新方法。该方法适用于1966-2008年中国地震造成的损失。为了验证巨灾模型,提出了各种误差措施。结果表明,双指数跳跃扩散模型很好地拟合了数据。

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