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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrological ProcHydrological Processesrnesses >Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran
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Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

机译：气候变化对半干旱地区水资源的构成，干旱和小麦产量的影响分析：伊朗卡尔克赫河流域

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摘要

Water resources availability in the semiarid regions of Iran has experienced severe reduction because of increasing water use and lengthening of dry periods. To better manage this resource, we investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semiarid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios for 2020–2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. We constructed a hydrological model of KRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to project water resources availability. Blue and green water components were modeled with uncertainty ranges for both historic and future data. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2 was used with parallel processing option to calibrate the model based on river discharge and wheat yield. Furthermore, a newly developed program called was used to determine the frequency and length of critical periods for precipitation, maximum temperature and soil moisture. We found that in the northern part of KRB, freshwater availability will increase from 1716 to 2670 m/capita/year despite an increase of 28% in the population in 2025 in the B1 scenario. In the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. The long-term average irrigated wheat yield, however, will increase in the south by 1.2%–21% in different subbasins; but for rain-fed wheat, this variation is from −4% to 38%. The results of critical continuous day calculator showed an increase of up to 25% in both frequency and length of dry periods in south Karkheh, whereas increasing flood events could be expected in the northern and western parts of the region. In general, there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative whereas other areas will experience a net positive impact. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：由于用水量增加和干旱时期延长，伊朗半干旱地区的水资源供应严重减少。为了更好地管理该资源，我们调查了气候变化对伊朗半干旱地区卡尔赫河河流域（KRB）的水资源和小麦产量的影响。 2020-2040年的未来气候情景是根据情景A1B，B1和A2的加拿大全球耦合模型得出的。我们使用土壤和水评估工具构建了KRB的水文模型，以预测水资源的可获得性。对蓝色和绿色水分量进行了建模，其不确定性范围适用于历史数据和未来数据。序列不确定度拟合版本2与并行处理选项一起使用，可根据河流流量和小麦产量校准模型。此外，使用了一个新开发的程序来确定降水，最高温度和土壤湿度的关键时期的频率和长度。我们发现，尽管在B1情景中2025年人口将增长28％，但在KRB北部，淡水可利用量将从1716年增加到2670 m /人/年。在南部，那里有许多农业用地，淡水平均可利用量将减少44％。然而，在南部，不同子盆地的长期平均灌溉小麦单产将提高1.2％–21％。但对于雨育小麦，这一变化范围是从-4％到38％。关键连续日计算器的结果表明，南部卡尔克海地区干旱时期的频率和长度都增加了多达25％，而该地区北部和西部的洪水事件可能会增加。总的来说，气候变化的影响在该地区会有所变化，该地区的某些地区将遭受净负面影响，而其他地区则将受到正面净影响。版权所有©2013 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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