...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Nordic hydrology >Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model
【24h】

Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model

机译：在SWAT模型的帮助下，维斯杜拉河和奥德拉河流域的径流预测

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The objective of this paper is to assess climate change impacts on spatiotemporal changes in annual and seasonal runoff and its components in the basins of two large European rivers, the Vistula and the Odra, for future horizons. This study makes use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, set up at high resolution, and driven by a multi-model ensemble (MME) of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5. This paper presents a wealth of illustrative material referring to the annual and seasonal runoff ( R ) in the reference period as well as projections for the future (MME mean change), with explicit illustration of the multi-model spread based on the agreement between models and statistical significance of change according to each model. Annual R increases are dominating, regardless of RCP and future horizon. The magnitude of the MME mean of spatially averaged increase varies between 15.8% (RCP 4.5, near future) and 41.6% (RCP 8.5, far future). The seasonal patterns show the highest increase in winter and the lowest in spring, whereas the spatial patterns show the highest increase in the inner, lowland part, and the lowest in the southern mountainous part of the basin.
机译：本文的目的是评估气候变化对两大欧洲河流（维斯杜拉河和奥德拉河）的年度和季节性径流量及其组成的时空变化的影响，以期达到未来的目标。本研究利用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型，该模型建立在高分辨率下，并由两个模型下的两个代表性浓度途径（RCP）进行的九种经偏置校正的EURO-CORDEX模拟的多模型合奏（MME）驱动。 ，4.5和8.5。本文提供了大量说明性材料，涉及参考期的年度和季节径流量（R）以及对未来的预测（MME均值变化），并基于模型之间的协议来明确说明多模型传播以及每个模型的变化的统计意义。不管RCP和未来的前景如何，年度R增长都占主导地位。 MME的空间平均增长平均值的幅度在15.8％（RCP 4.5，近期）和41.6％（RCP 8.5，近期）之间变化。季节格局显示冬季最高增幅，而春季则最低，而空间格局则表现出盆地内，低地部分增幅最大，南部山区最低。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2018年第2期|303-317|共15页
  • 作者

    Mikołaj Piniewski; Mateusz Szcześniak; Shaochun Huang; Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany;

    Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland;

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway;

    Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Poland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; EURO-CORDEX; hydrological modelling; Poland; robustness; SWAT;

    机译：气候变化;EURO-CORDEX;水文模拟;波兰;鲁棒性;特警;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号