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首页> 外文期刊>Nordic Hydrology >Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
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Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain

机译：用连续水文模型估算指数洪水：在英国的应用

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>Estimating peak river discharge, a critical issue in engineering hydrology, is essential for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams and bridges. In the UK, practitioners typically apply the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical method which estimates the design flood as the product of a relatively frequent flow estimate (the index flood, IF) and a regional growth factor. For gauged catchments the IF is estimated from observations. For ungauged catchments it is computed through a multiple regression model. While the FEH IF method provides peak flow estimates that are statistically robust, it does not readily take into account catchment heterogeneity or effect of environmental change on river flows. This study presents a new methodology to estimate the IF at national scale using continuous simulation from a physically based hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid). The methodology is tested across Great Britain and compares well with IF estimates at 550 gauging stations (R2= 0.91). The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models coupled with increasing availability of global weather and climate products, could be used to estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.
机译： >估算高峰河流量是工程水文学中的关键问题，对于设计和管理大坝和桥梁等水力基础设施至关重要。在英国，从业人员通常使用“洪水估算手册”（FEH）统计方法，该方法将设计洪水估算为相对频繁的流量估算（指数洪水，IF）和区域增长因子的乘积。对于测量的集水区，IF是根据观测值估算的。对于未集水的集水区，通过多元回归模型进行计算。尽管FEH IF方法提供的峰值流量估算值在统计上是可靠的，但它并未轻易考虑集水区的异质性或环境变化对河流流量的影响。这项研究提出了一种新方法，可以使用基于物理水文模型（网格到网格）的连续模拟来估算全国范围的中频。该方法在英国进行了测试，并与550个测量站的IF估计值进行了很好的比较（R 2 = 0.91）。对于英国来说，令人鼓舞的结果证明了这一愿望，即可以通过大规模水文模型的连续模拟，再加上全球天气和气候产品的可用性不断提高，可以将其用于估算数据量有限或受环境变化影响的区域的设计洪水。 p>

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