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Quantification of uncertainty in reference evapotranspiration climate change signals in Belgium

机译：比利时参考蒸散量气候变化信号不确定性的量化

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摘要

Projections of evapotranspiration form the basis of future runoff and water availability assessment in a climate change context. The scarcity of data or insufficiency of time/funds compels the application of simple reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) methods requiring less meteorological inputs for ET_o projections which adds uncertainty to the projected changes. This study investigates the bias in ET_o climate change signals derived from seven simple temperature- and radiation-based methods (Blaney-Criddle, Hargreaves-Samani, Schendel, Makkink, Turc, Jensen-Haise, Tabari) compared with that from the standard Penman-Monteith FAO 56 method on the basis of 12 general circulation model (GCM) outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for central Belgium for four future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results show the lack of conformity on the amount of ET_o changes between the simple and standard methods, with biases of over 100% for some simple methods. The uncertainty affiliated with ET_O methods for monthly ET_O changes is smaller but of comparable magnitude to GCM uncertainty, which is usually the major source of uncertainty, and larger for daily extreme ET_O changes. This emphasizes the imperative of addressing the uncertainty associated with ET_O methods for quantifying the hydrological response to climate change.
机译：蒸散量的预测构成了在气候变化背景下未来径流和水可利用性评估的基础。数据的匮乏或时间/资金的不足迫使采用简单的参考蒸散量（ET_O）方法，而ET_o预测所需的气象输入较少，这给预计的变化增加了不确定性。这项研究调查了ET_o气候变化信号中的偏差，该偏差来自七个简单的基于温度和辐射的方法（Blaney-Criddle，Hargreaves-Samani，Schendel，Makkink，Turc，Jensen-Haise，Tabari），与标准Penman- Monteith FAO 56方法基于比利时中部耦合模型比较模型项目第5阶段的12个通用循环模型（GCM）输出，用于四个未来温室气体情景（RCP2.6，RCP4.5，RCP6.0，RCP8.5） 。结果表明，简单方法和标准方法之间的ET_o变化量不一致，某些简单方法的偏差超过100％。每月ET_O变化与ET_O方法相关的不确定性较小，但与GCM不确定度（通常是不确定性的主要来源）相当，而对于每日极端ET_O变化，不确定度较大。这强调必须解决与ET_O方法相关的不确定性，以量化对气候变化的水文响应。

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