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Similarities and differences in the response to climate warming of two ice caps in Iceland

机译：冰岛两个冰盖对气候变暖的响应的异同

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摘要

The transient response to projected climate change of two ice caps in the central Icelandic highland was simulated with a vertically integrated ice-flow model coupled to a degree-day mass-balance model. The ice caps, Langjoekull and Hofsjoekull, are of similar size (area ～900 km~2 and volume ～ 200 km~3) and located only ～ 30 km apart. The climate change simulations were started in 1990 from steady states corresponding to the average climate of 1981-2000 and driven with observed weather parameters until 2005. Thereafter, the forcing was according to a Nordic climate change scenario based on the IPCC B2 emission scenario. The simulations during the period 1990-2005 compare reasonably well with observations of mass-balance and glacier extent. Both ice caps are projected to essentially disappear during the next 100 to 200 years. Langjoekull, which disappears within the next 150 years, shows larger mass-balance sensitivity to warming than the higher elevated Hofsjoekull, where ice on the highest peaks may last over 200 years. A large proportion of the simulated runoff increase with respect to a 1981 -2000 average has already taken place within the period 1990-2005. The runoff will increase further during the next 40-60 years and remain considerably higher than at present until the end of the 21st century.
机译：利用垂直整合的冰流模型和度日质量平衡模型，对冰岛中部高地两个冰盖的预计气候变化的瞬态响应进行了模拟。冰盖Langjoekull和Hofsjoekull的大小相似（面积〜900 km〜2，体积〜200 km〜3），相距仅约30 km。 1990年开始于对应于1981-2000年平均气候的稳态开始气候变化模拟，并以观测到的天气参数驱动直到2005年。此后，根据基于IPCC B2排放情景的北欧气候变化情景进行强迫。 1990-2005年期间的模拟结果与质量平衡和冰川范围的观测结果相当吻合。预计在接下来的100至200年中，两个冰盖将基本消失。 Langjoekull在接下来的150年内消失，与更高的高架Hofsjoekull相比，它对变暖的质量平衡敏感性更高，在Hofsjoekull上，最高峰的冰可能会持续200年以上。相对于1981年-2000年平均值，很大一部分模拟的径流增加已经在1990-2005年期间发生。在接下来的40至60年中，径流将进一步增加，并一直保持到21世纪末之前的水平。

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  • 来源
    《Hydrology research》 |2009年第5期|495-502|共8页
  • 作者

    S. Guomundsson; H. Bjoernsson; T. Johannesson; G. Aoalgeirsdottir; F. Palsson; O. Sigurosson;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Earth sciences, University of Iceland, Sturlugata 7, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;

    Institute of Earth sciences, University of Iceland, Sturlugata 7, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;

    Icelandic Meteorological Office, Bustaoavegur 9, 150 Reykjavik, Iceland;

    Danish Climate centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark;

    Institute of Earth sciences, University of Iceland, Sturlugata 7, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;

    Icelandic Meteorological Office, Bustaoavegur 9, 150 Reykjavik, Iceland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; glacial runoff change; glacier flow model; glacier mass balance; Iceland;

    机译：气候变化;冰河径流变化;冰川流模型冰川质量平衡;冰岛;

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