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Impacts of acid deposition at Plastic Lake: forecasting chemical recovery using a Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation approach

机译：Plastic Lake酸沉降的影响：使用贝叶斯校准和不确定性传播方法预测化学回收率

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摘要

Given the importance of models in the development of environmental polices it is necessary to assess the uncertainty introduced by model parameterisation and its impact on predictions. In the current study, an uncertainty framework designed to perform automated calibrations and developed for use with the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was applied to Plastic Lake, a long-term study site in Southern Ontario, Canada. The primary objectives were to investigate the chemical response of soil and surface water at Plastic Lake to proposed acid (sulfur and nitrogen) emissions and assess the use of the framework at a regional level. Despite the relatively high amount of uncertainty associated with many of the model parameters, calibration resulted in relatively narrow parameter convergence. The importance of time-series stream data was clearly evident, with uncertainty decreasing with more observation years. The forecast improvements in stream Acid Neutralizing Capacity at Plastic Lake from-40 μ eq/L in 1988 to 14 μeq/L in 2060 had 5 and 95% confidence bounds of-3 and 29 μeq/L, respectively. Despite the limited availability of soil chemical data in Ontario, the approach applied at Plastic Lake is viable on a regional basis given the abundance of water chemistry data.
机译：考虑到模型在环境政策制定中的重要性，有必要评估模型参数化带来的不确定性及其对预测的影响。在本研究中，不确定性框架旨在进行自动校准，并为与集水区地下水酸化模型（MAGIC）一起使用而开发，已应用于加拿大安大略省南部的长期研究地点Plastic Lake。主要目标是研究塑料湖中土壤和地表水对拟议的酸（硫和氮）排放的化学响应，并评估该框架在区域范围内的使用。尽管与许多模型参数相关的不确定性相对较高，但校准仍导致相对狭窄的参数收敛。时间序列流数据的重要性显而易见，不确定性随着观察年的增加而降低。预测Plastic Lake的河水中和能力从1988年的40μeq/ L到2060年的14μeq/ L的改善分别具有3％和29μeq/ L的5和95％置信区间。尽管安大略省土壤化学数据的可用性有限，但鉴于大量的水化学数据，Plastic Lake所采用的方法在区域范围内是可行的。

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  • 来源
    《Hydrology research》 |2009年第3期|249-260|共12页
  • 作者

    George MacDougall; Julian Aherne; Shaun Watmough;

  • 作者单位

    Environmental and Life Sciences, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada;

    Environmental and Life Sciences, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada;

    Environmental and Life Sciences, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    acidification recovery; monte carlo markov chain; uncertainty assessment;

    机译：酸化回收;蒙特卡洛·马尔科夫链不确定性评估;

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