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Uncertainty assessment of extreme flood estimation in the Dongting Lake basin, China

机译：洞庭湖流域极端洪水估算的不确定性评估

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摘要

In this paper, we study uncertainty in estimating extreme floods of the Dongting Lake basin, China. We used three methods, including the Delta, profile likelihood function (PLF), and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to calculate confidence intervals of parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and quantiles of extreme floods. The annual maximum flow (AMF) data from four hydrologic stations were selected. Our results show that AMF data from Taoyuan and Xiangtan stations followed the Weibull class distribution, while the data from Shimen and Taojiang stations followed the Frechet class distribution. The three methods show similar confidence intervals of design floods for short return periods. However, there are large differences between results of the Delta and the other two methods for long return periods. Both PLF and Bayesian MCMC methods have similar confidence intervals to reflect the uncertainty of design floods. However, because the PLF method is quite burdensome in computation, the Bayesian MCMC method is more suitable for practical use.
机译：在本文中，我们研究了估算中国洞庭湖流域特大洪灾的不确定性。我们使用了Delta，轮廓似然函数（PLF）和贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法三种方法来计算广义极值（GEV）分布参数和极端洪水分位数的置信区间。选择了来自四个水文站的年度最大流量（AMF）数据。我们的结果表明，桃园站和湘潭站的AMF数据遵循Weibull类分布，而石门站和桃江站的AMF数据遵循Frechet类分布。这三种方法在较短的回报期内显示出相似的设计洪水置信区间。但是，对于较长的回报期，Delta的结果与其他两种方法的结果之间存在很大差异。 PLF和贝叶斯MCMC方法都具有相似的置信区间，以反映设计洪水的不确定性。但是，由于PLF方法在计算上非常繁重，因此贝叶斯MCMC方法更适合实际使用。

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  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2019年第4期|1162-1176|共15页
  • 作者

    Wu Yunbiao; Xue Lianqing; Liu Yuanhong; Ren Lei;

  • 作者单位

    Hohai Univ Coll Hydrol & Water Resources Nanjing 210098 Jiangsu Peoples R China|Wanjiang Univ Technol Maanshan 243031 Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ Coll Hydrol & Water Resources Nanjing 210098 Jiangsu Peoples R China|Wanjiang Univ Technol Maanshan 243031 Peoples R China|Shihezi Univ Shihezi 832003 Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ Coll Hydrol & Water Resources Nanjing 210098 Jiangsu Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Bayesian MCMC; Delta method; Dongting Lake; extreme flood; profile likelihood function; uncertainty;

    机译：贝叶斯MCMC;增量法洞庭湖特大洪水轮廓似然函数不确定;

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