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Uncertainty in empirical estimates of marine larval connectivity

机译：海洋幼体连通性经验估计的不确定性

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摘要

Despite major advances in our capacity to measure marine larval connectivity (i.e. the pattern of transport of marine larvae from spawning to settlement sites) and the importance of these measurements for ecological and management questions, uncertainty in experimental estimates of marine larval connectivity has been given little attention. We review potential uncertainty sources in empirical larval connectivity studies and develop Bayesian statistical methods for estimating these uncertainties based on standard techniques in the mark-recapture and genetics literature. These methods are implemented in an existing R package for working with connectivity data, ConnMatTools, and applied to a number of published connectivity estimates. We find that the small sample size of collected settlers at destination sites is a dominant source of uncertainty in connectivity estimates in many published results. For example, widths of 95% CIs for relative connectivity, the value of which is necessarily between 0 and 1, exceeded 0.5 for many published connectivity results, complicating using individual results to conclude that marine populations are relatively closed or open. This "small sample size" uncertainty is significant even for studies with near-exhaustive sampling of spawners and settlers. Though largely ignored in the literature, the magnitude of this uncertainty is straightforward to assess. Better accountability of this and other uncertainties is needed in the future so that marine larval connectivity studies can fulfill their promises of providing important ecological insights and informing management questions (e.g. related to marine protected area network design, and stock structure of exploited organisms). In addition to using the statistical methods developed here, future studies should consistently evaluate and report a small number of critical factors, such as the exhaustivity of spawner and settler sampling, and the mating structure of target species in genetic studies.
机译：尽管我们在测量海洋幼体连通性的能力（例如，从产卵区到定居点的海洋幼体的运输方式）取得了重大进步，并且这些测量对于生态和管理问题的重要性，但对海洋幼体连通性的实验估算的不确定性却很少注意。我们在经验性幼虫连通性研究中回顾了潜在的不确定性来源，并开发了基于标记夺回和遗传学文献中标准技术的贝叶斯统计方法来估计这些不确定性。这些方法在现有的R包中实现，用于处理连接数据ConnMatTools，并应用于许多已发布的连接估计。我们发现，在许多已发布的结果中，目的地站点上收集的定居者的样本量较小，是连通性估计不确定性的主要来源。例如，相对连通性的95％CI的宽度（对于许多公开的连通性结果而言，其值必须介于0和1之间）超过0.5，使用单个结果得出的结论是海洋种群相对封闭或开放使情况变得复杂。即使对于产卵场和定居者的接近穷举采样的研究，这种“小样本量”的不确定性也很重要。尽管在文献中基本上忽略了这种不确定性的程度，但可以直接进行评估。未来需要对此和其他不确定性进行更好的责任追究，以便海洋幼体连通性研究能够兑现其提供重要的生态见识并告知管理问题的承诺（例如与海洋保护区网络设计和被开发生物的种群结构有关）。除了使用此处开发的统计方法外，未来的研究还应始终如一地评估和报告少数关键因素，例如产卵和定居者采样的穷举性以及遗传研究中目标物种的交配结构。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2017年第6期|1723-1734|共12页
  • 作者

    Kaplan David M.; Cuif Marion; Fauvelot Cecile; Vigliola Laurent; Tri Nguyen-Huu; Tiavouane Josina; Lett Christophe;

  • 作者单位

    Virginia Inst Marine Sci, Coll William & Mary, POB 1346,1375 Greate Rd, Gloucester Point, VA 23062 USA;

    UPMC Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, IRD, Unite Modelisat Math & Informat Syst Complexes UM, F-93143 Bondy, France|IRD, Lab Excellence LABEX Corail, UMR ENTROPIE, BP A5, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia;

    IRD, Lab Excellence LABEX Corail, UMR ENTROPIE, BP A5, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia;

    IRD, Lab Excellence LABEX Corail, UMR ENTROPIE, BP A5, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia;

    UMI IRD 209 UPMC UMMISCO, IXXI, 7 Rue Vercors, F-69007 Lyon, France;

    IRD, Lab Excellence LABEX Corail, UMR ENTROPIE, BP A5, Noumea 98848, New Caledonia;

    UPMC Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, IRD, Unite Modelisat Math & Informat Syst Complexes UM, F-93143 Bondy, France|Stn Ifremer Sete, UMR MARBEC, Ave J Monnet, F-34203 Sete, France;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    connectivity; larval dispersal; parentage analysis; self-recruitment; transgenerational marking;

    机译：连通性;幼虫扩散;亲缘分析;自我招募;世代标记;

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