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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Climate change and non-stationary population processes in fisheries management
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Climate change and non-stationary population processes in fisheries management

机译：渔业管理中的气候变化和非固定人口过程

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The potential influence of climate change on the future distribution and abundance of fish (and therefore commercial fisheries and food security) is increasingly recognized in the fishery management community. A changing climate will likely have differing effects on different species; some will flourish, some will flounder. Management targets for fishing mortality and spawning biomass are often calculated by assuming stationary population processes, but under climate change, this assumption may be violated. Non-stationary population processes can introduce bias into estimates of biomass from stock assessments and calculations of target fishing mortalities and biomasses. However, few accepted frameworks exist for incorporating the changing influence of the environment on exploited populations into management strategies. Identifying changes in population processes due to environmental influences is important in order to enable climate-enhanced management strategy evaluations to elucidate the potential benefits and costs of changing management targets. Cost/benefit analyses will also be useful when coincidentally caught species respond differently to environmental change.
机译：渔业管理界日益认识到气候变化对鱼类的未来分布和丰富度（以及商业渔业和粮食安全）的潜在影响。气候变化可能会对不同物种产生不同的影响；有些会蓬勃发展，有些会挣扎。捕鱼死亡率和产卵生物量的管理目标通常是通过假设种群数量稳定的过程来计算的，但是在气候变化的情况下，可能会违反这一假设。非平稳种群过程可能会从种群评估以及目标捕捞死亡率和生物量的计算得出的生物量估计中引入偏差。但是，几乎没有公认的框架可以将环境对被剥削人口的不断变化的影响纳入管理策略。识别由于环境影响而导致的人口过程变化，对于使气候增强型管理策略评估能够阐明更改管理目标的潜在收益和成本非常重要。当偶然捕获的物种对环境变化的反应不同时，成本/收益分析也将很有用。

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