Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

Cheung William W. L.; Frolicher Thomas L.; Asch Rebecca G.; Jones Miranda C.; Pinsky Malin L.; Reygondeau Gabriel; Rodgers Keith B.; Rykaczewski Ryan R.; Sarmiento Jorge L.; Stock Charles; Watson James R.

首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

【24h】

Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

机译：建立对海洋生物资源对气候变化的反应预测的信心

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.

机译：政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告强调，气候变化和海洋酸化正在挑战海洋生物资源（LMR）的可持续管理。然而，缺乏对现有LMR预测中不确定性的正式和系统的处理。我们通过气候模型的比对工作，综合了如何解决不确定性的不同来源的知识。我们建议将可用的模型和预测结合起来，以观察为基础，以此作为量化不确定性的起点。这样的合奏必须与对不同空间尺度，时间范围和指标的主要不确定性的分析相结合。我们使用两个示例：（i）21世纪海表温度的全球和区域预测，以及（ii）21世纪黑貂（Anoplopoma fimbria）潜在捕捞量变化的预测，以说明这种综合模型方法来探索不同类型的不确定性。进一步的工作应优先考虑对不确定性占主导地位的，抽样不足的维度，以及对量化和最终减少不确定性的观测结果进行战略收集。我们提出的框架将提高我们对LMR未来变化以及在不断变化的海洋条件下对生态系统和社会造成影响的风险的理解。

著录项

来源
《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2016年第5期|1283-1296|共14页
作者
Cheung William W. L.; Frolicher Thomas L.; Asch Rebecca G.; Jones Miranda C.; Pinsky Malin L.; Reygondeau Gabriel; Rodgers Keith B.; Rykaczewski Ryan R.; Sarmiento Jorge L.; Stock Charles; Watson James R.;
展开▼
作者单位

Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn, Nereus Program,AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada|Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Changing Ocean Res Unit, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;

Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, Environm Phys, Zurich, Switzerland;

Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;

Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn, Nereus Program,AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada|Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Changing Ocean Res Unit, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;

Rutgers State Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Nat Resources, New Brunswick, NJ 08903 USA;

Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn, Nereus Program,AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada|Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Changing Ocean Res Unit, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;

Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;

Univ S Carolina, Dept Biol Sci, Columbia, SC 29208 USA|Univ S Carolina, Marine Sci Program, Columbia, SC 29208 USA;

Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;

NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;

Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA|Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;

展开▼
收录信息
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
climate change; fisheries; marine resources; multi-model ensembles; projection; uncertainty;

机译：气候变化;渔业;海洋资源;多模型合奏;投影;不确定性;

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate [J] . Drenkard Elizabeth J., Stock Charles, Ross Andrew C., ICES Journal of Marine Science . 2021,第6期

机译：改变气候中的生活海洋资源管理的下一代区域海洋预测
2. Climate change in the Southern Ocean: Is the Commission for the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources doing enough? [J] . Goldsworthy Lynda, Brennan Eaven Marine policy . 2021,第Auga期

机译：南海的气候变化：是南极海洋生活资源保护委员会的委员会呢？
3. Marine living resources of the Barents Sea - Ecosystem understanding and monitoring in a climate change perspective [J] . Michalsen K., Dalpadado P., Eriksen E., Marine biology research . 2013,第9期

机译：巴伦支海的海洋生物资源-从气候变化的角度对生态系统的理解和监测
4. NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR COASTAL OCEAN SCIENCE- BIOGEOGRAPHY PROGRAM: INTEGRATION OF ECOLOGY AND GIS TO ASSESS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVING MARINE RESOURCES [C] . Mark E. Monaco Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference Feb 24-27, 2002 San Diego, California . 2002

机译：NOAA国家海洋科学中心-生物地理计划：整合生态学和GIS来评估气候变化对海洋生物资源的影响
5. Living with change. Local knowledge, institutions, livelihoods and coastal resources in Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon system under context of institutional and global climate change. [D] . Vo, Thanh D. 2009

机译：与变化共存。在机构和全球气候变化的背景下，Tam Giang-Cau Hai泻湖系统中的本地知识，机构，生计和沿海资源。
6. Climate change projections and public health systems: Building evidence-informed connections [O] . Gillian Fielding, Michelle McPherson, Patti Hansen-Ketchum, 2016

机译：气候变化预测和公共卫生系统：建立有据可依的联系
7. Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change [O] . William W. L. Cheung, Thomas L. Frölicher, Rebecca G. Asch, 2016

机译：建立对生活海洋资源响应对气候变化的承担的信心
8. Processes for identifying regional influences of and responses to increasing atmospheric CO(sub 2) and climate change -- the MINK Project. Report 2A, Agricultural production and resource use in the MINK Region without and with climate change. [R] . P. R. Crosson L. A. Katz J. Wingard 1991

机译：确定区域对大气CO（次级2）和气候变化的影响和响应的过程 - mINK项目。报告2a，没有气候变化和气候变化的mINK地区的农业生产和资源利用。

Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅