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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Modelling the likely impacts of climate-driven changes in cod-capelin overlap in the Barents Sea
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Modelling the likely impacts of climate-driven changes in cod-capelin overlap in the Barents Sea

机译：模拟巴伦支海鳕鱼-毛鳞鱼重叠的气候驱动变化可能产生的影响

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摘要

Recent observations have indicated that the cod distribution within the Barents Sea is expanding towards the northeast. The area into which the cod are expanding has historically been an area with large stocks of polar cod and capelin. It can be expected that the continued expansion of cod into this region would lead to greater availability of these forage fish for cod predation and have a direct impact on the forage fish stock. The distributional shift may also reduce the level of cod cannibalism. Such changes have implications for the management of both cod and capelin fisheries. In this paper, we use two different models (Gadget and STOCOBAR) to examine the effects of the changing overlap on cod and capelin. The results from the two models are compared to reduce uncertainty due to model formulation and exploit the different strengths of the two approaches. Although there are many uncertainties around the ongoing changes, the results indicate that the increased spatial overlap could contribute to modest rises by up to 20% in the average cod stock biomass, but with an increase in the impact of cannibalism, and hence an increased variability in the cod stock size.
机译：最近的观察表明，鳕鱼在巴伦支海的分布正在向东北扩展。从历史上看，鳕鱼的扩张区域一直是极地鳕鱼和毛鳞鱼大量存货的地区。可以预期，鳕鱼继续向该区域扩展将使这些饲料鱼更容易用于鳕鱼捕食，并对饲料鱼存量产生直接影响。分布转移也可能降低鳕鱼食人症的水平。这样的变化对鳕鱼和卡佩林渔业的管理都有影响。在本文中，我们使用两种不同的模型（小工具和STOCOBAR）来检查重叠的变化对鳕鱼和毛鳞鱼的影响。比较了两个模型的结果，以减少模型制定带来的不确定性，并利用两种方法的不同优势。尽管围绕正在进行的变化存在许多不确定性，但结果表明，空间重叠的增加可能会导致平均鳕鱼种群生物量温和增加多达20％，但食人症的影响增加，因此变异性增加鳕鱼的存货量

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