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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in the North Pacific Ocean
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An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in the North Pacific Ocean

机译：整体分析预测北太平洋条纹马林鱼（Kajikia audax）的未来栖息地

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摘要

Striped marlin is a highly migratory species distributed throughout the North Pacific Ocean, which shows considerable variation in spatial distribution as a consequence of habitat preference. This species may therefore shift its range in response to future changes in the marine environment driven by climate change. It is important to understand the factors determining the distribution of striped marlin and the influence of climate change on these factors, to develop effective fisheries management policies given the economic importance of the species and the impact of fishing. We examined the spatial patterns and habitat preferences of striped marlin using generalized additive models fitted to data from longline fisheries. Future distributions were predicted using an ensemble analysis, which represents the uncertainty due to several global climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The increase in water temperature driven by climate change is predicted to lead to a northward displacement of striped marlin in the North Pacific Ocean. Use of a simple predictor of water temperature to describe future distribution, as in several previous studies, may not be robust, which emphasizes that variables other than sea surface temperatures from bioclimatic models are needed to understand future changes in the distribution of large pelagic species.
机译：条纹马林鱼是高度迁徙的物种，分布在整个北太平洋，由于栖息地的偏爱，其空间分布显示出相当大的变化。因此，该物种可能会因气候变化导致海洋环境的未来变化而改变其范围。重要的是要了解决定条纹马林鱼分布的因素以及气候变化对这些因素的影响，鉴于物种的经济重要性和捕捞的影响，制定有效的渔业管理政策非常重要。我们使用了适合延绳钓渔业数据的广义加性模型，研究了条纹马林的空间格局和生境偏好。使用集合分析预测了未来的分布，这代表了由于几种全球气候模型和温室气体排放情景造成的不确定性。预计气候变化驱动的水温升高将导致北太平洋条纹马林鱼向北移动。像先前的一些研究一样，使用简单的水温预测器来描述未来的分布可能并不稳健，这强调了除了生物气候模型的海表温度以外，还需要其他变量来了解大型远洋物种分布的未来变化。

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