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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Data conflicts in fishery models: incorporating hydroacoustic data into the Prince William Sound Pacific herring assessment model
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Data conflicts in fishery models: incorporating hydroacoustic data into the Prince William Sound Pacific herring assessment model

机译：渔业模型中的数据冲突：将水声数据纳入威廉王子湾太平洋鲱鱼评估模型

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摘要

Data conflicts present difficulties in running integrated assessment models as shown by the age-structured assessment (ASA) model for the Pacific herring population in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska. After the 1989 "Exxon Valdez" oil spill in PWS, the Pacific herring (Clupea patlasi) ASA model indicated a significant decline in the population, starting in winter 1992. Back-calculated estimates from hydroacoustic abundance surveys that started in 1993 suggested that the ASA model overestimated herring biomass from 1990 to 1992 and that the population decline actually began in 1989. To expose data conflicts, we incorporated the hydroacoustic survey information with all available spawning population indices directly into the age-structured model. In this way, the substantial uncertainty about population parameters from 1989 to 1992 attributable to data conflicts was quantified. Consequently, the magnitude of declines for that period estimated from both linear and ASA models depend on the type of integrated datasets and weighting, particularly with indices of male spawners. Our view is that a major decline started in 1992 when disease affected a large population that was in weakened condition. Other views are consistent with the existing data too.
机译：数据冲突给运行综合评估模型带来了困难，如阿拉斯加威廉王子湾（PWS）的太平洋鲱鱼种群的年龄结构评估（ASA）模型所示。在1989年PWS“埃克森·瓦尔迪兹（Exxon Valdez）”漏油事件之后，太平洋鲱（Clupea patlasi）ASA模型表明人口从1992年冬季开始显着下降。1993年开始的水声丰度调查得出的反算估计值表明，ASA该模型高估了1990年至1992年的鲱鱼生物量，而人口下降实际上始于1989年。为了揭示数据冲突，我们将水声调查信息以及所有可用的产卵种群指数直接纳入了年龄结构模型中。通过这种方式，量化了由于数据冲突导致的1989年至1992年的总体参数不确定性。因此，从线性模型和ASA模型估计的那个时期的下降幅度取决于集成数据集的类型和权重，尤其是雄性产卵者的指数。我们认为，主要的下降始于1992年，当时疾病影响了处于弱势状态的大量人口。其他视图也与现有数据一致。

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