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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Spatial and temporal prediction of fin whale distribution in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea
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Spatial and temporal prediction of fin whale distribution in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

机译：地中海西北部鲸鱼分布的时空预测

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摘要

Understanding the distribution of the cetaceans is crucial to improving their conservation. Therefore, a prediction model of fin whale's (Balaenoptera physalus) summer distribution was developed from data collected between May and August, in the Pelagos Mediterranean Marine Mammals Sanctuary. Explanatory variables were selected by multiple logistic regression, among several physiographic and oceanographic parameters. Depth, chlorophyll (Chl a) concentration, and sea surface temperature (SST) were selected for characterizing fin whale presence. Remote sensing imagery (Chl a and SST) was used at an 8-d resolution to capture short-term environmental variability. With the selection of a presence/absence threshold by the receiver operating characteristic curve, a correct classification of 70% (49% for presence, 85% for absence) was achieved for the initial dataset. Model reliability was also tested on an independent dataset, collected in the northwestern Basin; a correct classification of 71% (41% for presence prediction, 86% for absence prediction) was obtained. This study contributes to an understanding of where fin whales might concentrate to feed in summer. Weekly predictions of their distribution represent a valuable conservation tool in a marine protected area, for example to prevent collisions with ships.
机译：了解鲸类的分布对于改善它们的保护至关重要。因此，根据五月至八月间在Pelagos地中海海洋哺乳动物保护区收集的数据，建立了长须鲸（Balaenoptera physalus）夏季分布的预测模型。通过多种逻辑和回归，从几个生理学和海洋学参数中选择解释性变量。选择深度，叶绿素（Chl a）浓度和海面温度（SST）来表征长须鲸的存在。遥感影像（Chl a和SST）以8 d分辨率使用，以捕获短期环境变化。通过接收器工作特性曲线选择存在/不存在阈值，可以为初始数据集实现70％的正确分类（对于存在为49％，对于不存在为85％）。模型可靠性也在西北盆地收集的独立数据集上进行了测试。正确分类为71％（对于存在预测为41％，对于缺失预测为86％）。这项研究有助于人们了解大头鲸在夏天可能集中在哪里觅食。对它们分布的每周预测是海洋保护区内有价值的保护工具，例如，以防止与船舶相撞。

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