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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Estimating stock parameters from trawl cpue-at-age series using year-class curves
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Estimating stock parameters from trawl cpue-at-age series using year-class curves

机译：使用年级曲线估算拖网cpue-at-age系列的库存参数

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摘要

A year-class curve is a plot of log cpue (catch per unit effort) over age for a single year class of a species (in contrast to the better known catch curve, fitted to multiple year classes at one time). When linear, the intercept and slope estimate the log cpue at age 0 and the average rate of total mortality, Z, respectively. Here, we suggest methodological refinements within a linear least squares framework. Candidate models may include a selectivity term, fleet-specific parameters, and polynomials in year to allow for gradual variations of Z. An iterative weighting method allows for differing precisions among the different fleets, and a forward (one-step ahead) validation procedure tests predicted cpue against observed values. Choice of the best approximating model(s) is made by ranking the biological credibility of each candidate model, then by comparing graphic plots, precision of prediction, and the Akaike Information Criterion. Two example analyses are (ⅰ) a comparison of estimated and true results for five stock simulations carried out by the US National Research Council, and (ⅱ) modelling three beam trawl surveys for plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) in the North Sea. Results were consistent with known, age-related, offshore migrations by plaice. Year-class curves are commended as a widely applicable, statistically based, visual, and robust method.
机译：年级曲线是物种的单个年级的对数cpue（每单位工作量的捕获量）随年龄变化的曲线图（与更广为人知的捕获曲线相反，一次拟合到多个年级）。如果为线性，则截距和斜率分别估计0岁时的对数cpue和总死亡率的平均比率Z。在这里，我们建议在线性最小二乘法框架内进行方法上的改进。候选模型可以包括选择性项，特定于舰队的参数和一年中的多项式，以允许Z的逐渐变化。迭代加权方法可以使不同舰队之间的精度有所不同，并且可以进行正向验证（提前一步）相对于观察值的预测cpue。最佳近似模型的选择是通过对每个候选模型的生物可信度进行排序，然后通过比较图形图，预测精度和赤池信息准则来进行的。两个示例分析是（ⅰ）比较美国国家研究委员会进行的五种种群模拟的估计结果与真实结果，以及（ⅱ）对北海（Pleuronectes platesa）的三束拖网调查进行建模。结果与已知的，与年龄有关的，鱼近海迁徙相符。年级曲线被推荐为一种广泛适用的，基于统计的，直观且健壮的方法。

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