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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Leveraging scientific uncertainty in fisheries management for estimating among-assessment variation in overfishing limits
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Leveraging scientific uncertainty in fisheries management for estimating among-assessment variation in overfishing limits

机译：利用渔业管理中的科学不确定性来估计过度捕捞限额之间的评估差异

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Fisheries management systems can utilize probability-based harvest control rules to incorporate scientific uncertainty and manager risk tolerance when setting catch limits. A precautionary buffer that scales with scientific uncertainty is used to calculate the acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit (OFL) for US West Coast groundfish and coastal pelagic species. A previous analysis formed the basis for estimating scientific uncertainty as the among-assessment variation in estimates of historical spawning biomass time-series. This "historical biomass" approach may underestimate scientific uncertainty, because the OFL is a function of estimated exploitable biomass and fishing mortality. We developed a new approach that bases the calculation of scientific uncertainty on projected spawning biomass (SSB) and OFLs, accounting for uncertainty in recruitment and among-assessment variation. OFL projections yielded a higher estimate of uncertainty than SSB (0.502 vs. 0.413 for 25-year projections and 0.562 vs. 0.384 for a 1-year projection, assuming a deterministic stock-recruitment relationship). Assuming a stochastic stock-recruitment relationship produced smaller estimates of uncertainty (0.436, 25-year OFL projections; 0.452, 1-year OFL projections; 0.360, 25-year SSB projections; 0.318, 1-year SSB projections). The projection-based approach presented herein is applicable across stocks and regions that conduct assessments with sufficient and consistent outputs for calculating an OFL.
机译：渔业管理系统可以在设定捕捞限额时利用基于概率的收获控制规则来纳入科学不确定性和管理者风险承受能力。具有科学不确定性的预防性缓冲液可用于根据美国西海岸底鱼和沿海浮游鱼类的过度捕捞限制（OFL）计算可接受的生物捕获量。先前的分析构成了将科学不确定性作为历史产卵生物量时间序列估计中评估间差异的基础。这种“历史生物量”方法可能会低估科学不确定性，因为OFL是估计的可利用生物量和捕捞死亡率的函数。我们开发了一种新方法，该方法基于预计产卵生物量（SSB）和OFL的科学不确定性计算，考虑了招聘和评估之间的不确定性。假设确定的库存-招聘关系，OFL的预测得出的不确定性估计值比SSB更高（25年预测为0.502对0.413，1年预测为0.562对0.384）。假设随机库存-招聘关系产生的不确定性估计值较小（0.436，25年OFL预测; 0.452，1年OFL预测; 0.360，25年SSB预测; 0.318，1年SSB预测）。本文介绍的基于预测的方法适用于进行评估的股票和地区，这些评估具有足够且一致的输出来计算OFL。

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