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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Closing the gap between causality, prediction, emergence, and applied marine management
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Closing the gap between causality, prediction, emergence, and applied marine management

机译：关闭因果关系，预测，出现和应用海洋管理之间的差距

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摘要

The themed article set (TS) "Science in support of a nonlinear non-equilibrium world" reflects the challenge presented by the increasing potential for complex non-linear behaviour in marine ecosystems, many of which are undergoing dramatic changes due to anthropogenic perturbations. Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, yet management strategies are often guided by a linear, stable perspective that excludes non-linearities and the possibility for evolution and adaptation. Rapidly increasing amounts of observational data, the interdisciplinary development of powerful mathematical approaches from complexity theory, and the evolving complex adaptive systems approach that includes human behaviour promise to substantially advance the development of management strategies. For these reasons, the ICES Journal of Marine Science solicited contributions to a TS that would take up these issues. In this introduction, I focus on three important areas-causality, prediction, and emergence-where a "non-linear" perspective can advance our understanding and better support sustainable management of ecosystems. I briefly present the nine contributions that are included in the themed set and suggest some ways forward. We hope that these articles serve to convince managers and marine scientists of the benefits of incorporating approaches and results from research on non-linear dynamics.
机译：主题文章集（TS）“支持非线性非均衡世界的科学”反映了海洋生态系统中复杂非线性行为的增加潜力所呈现的挑战，其中许多是由于人为扰动导致的巨大变化。海洋生态系统是复杂的自适应系统，但管理策略通常由线性，稳定的角度来指导，不包括非线性和进化和适应的可能性。快速增加的观测数据量，来自复杂性理论的强大数学方法的跨学科发展，以及包括人类行为的不断发展的复杂自适应系统方法，以便大大提高管理策略的发展。出于这些原因，ICES COMENTION为占据这些问题的TS征求贡献。在这一介绍中，我专注于三个重要的地区 - 因果关系，预测和出现 - 其中“非线性”的观点可以推进我们的理解和更好地支持生态系统的可持续管理。我简要介绍了主题集中包含的九个贡献，并建议前进。我们希望这些文章有助于说服管理人员和海洋科学家对非线性动力学研究的融合和结果的益处。

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