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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems
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Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems

机译：自然系统建模机会和必要性

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Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management.
机译：近30年前，出现了确定性混乱的概念。凭借它对初始条件，非线性和奇怪的吸引子感到敏感。这构成了一个范式的转变，以至于对数值典发者如何接近动态系统的方式进行了深刻改变。它还提供了解决科学家和非科学家之间的互感误解的情况，了解自然系统中的不确定性和可预测性。我们的命题是，这个问题可以以原始方式解决，涉及基于机会原则和必要性的建模（CAN）。我们概述了CAN模型的概念和数学原理，并将模型应用于Marents Sea Food-Web。由于模型可以依赖于所有演员容易地掌握的概念，因为它们是明确的已知和未知数，并且由于其结果的解释很简单而不是规范性，因此它们可以在参与式管理的背景下使用。我们提出，三十年的混乱理论出现后，可以成为在结构上和动态复杂的自然系统建模上调和科学家和非科学家的实际步骤，并显着为基于生态系统的渔业管理贡献。

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