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A Lesson from Past Energy Crises

机译：过去能源危机的教训

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After dealing with the very recent history of Moore's law in the previous issue of IEEE Industrial Electronics Magazine, I will jump far back into the past for this issue, taking the opportunity given by a present-world economic event. The recent collapse in oil prices to around US$30/barrel, after it soared in 2008 to peak at US$140/barrel, was welcomed by drivers, airlines, and transportation companies, but it is not beneficial from all points of view. The collapse causes major stresses in the financial world and weakens the awareness of the finiteness of fossil reserves and of the need for switching to renewable nonpolluting resources. Prospects such as these are not new. Nevertheless, despite the warnings launched decades ago by the models developed by several groups, starting with the System Dynamics Group of Jay Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1971) and by the Club of Rome with the Meadows' Report (1972) [1], the industrialized world has long delayed realizing the weakness of its dependence on nonrenewable resources and, more generally, on the limited availability of raw materials. The extraordinary industrial development in the United States during the two postwar periods depended, to a major extent, on the wide availability of oil at a very low cost, after geological exploration in the 1930s revealed immense oil fields in Asia (e.g., the Persian Gulf, Iran, etc.). The European choice of coal, formalized early after World War II with the institution of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), pointed to a less valuable, although important, energy source. More recently, the new strong Eastern economies, notably those of China and India, have resulted a dramatic rise in oil demand that called for a keener evaluation of the limits of existing reserves. During the last few years, several governments have undertaken steady policies in support of technological research for the replacement of fossil fuels and the reduction of pollution. T- ese plans have a central role in the European Union (EU) Horizon 2020 program, with the objective of covering 20% of energy demand by means of renewable sources and reducing pollution by 20% from the 1990 level by 2020. The U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama administration conceived a US$15 billion per year plan to develop renewable sources for reducing emissions by 80% by 2050. We are confident that these measures will be timely and appropriate because we rely positively on the human ability to find new solutions capable of promoting progress. Nevertheless, such evolution should not necessarily be taken for granted. In fact, the depletion of energy resources and raw materials is not a specific problem of postindustrial economies. Similar circumstances occurred several times in the past and successful solutions were not always found.
机译：在上一期《 IEEE工业电子杂志》中探讨了摩尔定律的最新历史之后，我将利用当今世界经济大事的机会，跳回过去的这个问题。最近的油价暴跌至每桶30美元左右，在2008年飙升至每桶140美元的峰值后，受到了司机，航空公司和运输公司的欢迎，但从所有角度来看，这都是不利的。崩溃给金融界造成了巨大压力，削弱了人们对化石储量有限性和转向使用可再生无污染资源的认识。诸如此类的前景并不新鲜。尽管如此，尽管几十个小组开发的模型发出了警告，但从麻省理工学院的杰伊·佛雷斯特的系统动力学小组（1971年）和罗马俱乐部的梅多斯报告（1972年）开始[1]。 ，工业化世界长期以来一直延迟意识到其对不可再生资源的依赖，尤其是对原材料有限的依赖的弱点。在战后的两个时期，美国的非凡工业发展在很大程度上取决于1930年代的地质勘探揭示出亚洲巨大的油田（例如波斯湾）之后，石油以低廉的价格获得了广泛的可用性。 ，伊朗等）。在第二次世界大战后与欧洲煤钢共同体（ECSC）共同制定的欧洲煤炭选择，指出了一种虽然价值不大但重要的能源。最近，新兴的强劲东部经济体，尤其是中国和印度的东部经济体，导致石油需求急剧上升，这要求对现有储量的限制进行更敏锐的评估。在过去的几年中，一些国家的政府采取了稳定的政策来支持技术研究，以替代化石燃料并减少污染。这些计划在欧盟（Horizo​​n）Horizo​​n 2020计划中发挥着核心作用，其目标是通过可再生资源满足20％的能源需求，并到2020年将污染水平从1990年的水平降低20％。奥巴马政府领导的能源部计划制定一项每年150亿美元的计划，以开发可再生能源，以在2050年之前将排放量减少80％。我们相信这些措施将是及时和适当的，因为我们积极依赖人类寻找新解决方案的能力有能力促进进步。然而，这种演变不一定是理所当然的。实际上，能源和原材料的枯竭并不是后工业经济的一个具体问题。过去多次发生类似情况，但并非总是能找到成功的解决方案。

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