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首页> 外文期刊>Systems Journal, IEEE >System Dynamics of a Refined Epidemic Model for Infection Propagation Over Complex Networks
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System Dynamics of a Refined Epidemic Model for Infection Propagation Over Complex Networks

机译：复杂网络上感染传播的精确流行模型的系统动力学

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摘要

The ability to predict future epidemic threats, both in real and digital worlds, and to develop effective containment strategies heavily leans on the availability of reliable infection spreading models. The stochastic behavior of such processes makes them even more demanding to scrutinize over structured networks. This paper concerns the dynamics of a new susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) epidemic model incorporated with multistage infection (infection delay) and an infective medium (propagation vector) over complex networks. In particular, we investigate the critical epidemic thresholds and the infection spreading pattern using mean-field approximation (MFA) and results obtained through extensive numerical simulations. We further generalize the model for any arbitrary number of infective media to mimic existing scenarios in biological and social networks. Our analysis and simulation results reveal that the inclusion of multiple infective medium and multiple stages of infection significantly alleviates the epidemic threshold and, thus, accelerates the process of infection spreading in the population.
机译：预测现实世界和数字世界中未来流行病威胁以及制定有效遏制策略的能力在很大程度上取决于可靠的感染传播模型的可用性。这种过程的随机行为使他们对结构化网络的审查要求更高。本文涉及在复杂网络上结合多阶段感染（感染延迟）和感染介质（传播媒介）的新型易感性-易感性（SIS）流行病模型的动力学。特别是，我们使用平均场近似（MFA）研究了关键的流行阈值和感染扩散模式，并通过广泛的数值模拟获得了结果。我们进一步推广了任意数量的传染媒介模型，以模仿生物和社会网络中的现有情景。我们的分析和模拟结果表明，包含多种感染介质和感染的多个阶段可以显着降低流行阈值，从而加快感染在人群中的传播过程。

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  • 来源
    《Systems Journal, IEEE》 |2016年第4期|1316-1325|共10页
  • 作者

    Aresh Dadlani; Muthukrishnan Senthil Kumar; Suvi Murugan; Kiseon Kim;

  • 作者单位

    School of Information and Communications, Department of Nanobio Materials and Electronics, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Gwangju, Korea;

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore, India;

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore, India;

    School of Information and Communications, Department of Nanobio Materials and Electronics, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Gwangju, Korea;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Vectors; Sociology; Statistics; Delays; Complex networks; Mathematical model; Numerical models;

    机译：向量;社会学;统计;时滞;复杂网络;数学模型;数值模型;

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