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Outlook of the International Oil Situation

机译：国际石油形势展望

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1. While global oil demand in 2019 was 100.3 million b/d, total supply was 100.2 million b/d, comprising non-OPEC production of 64.4 million b/d and OPEC production of 35.8 million b/d, partly due to a decline in production in Iran, Venezuela, and other countries. On the other hand, although supply pressure is expected to increase by 2020 due to an increase in non-OPEC production particularly in the United States, demand and supply will be generally balanced at a level of about 101 million b/d to 102 million b/d through OPEC-plus adjustments. 2. Based on the abovementioned premise of demand and supply balance, and if the impact of geopolitical risks and other factors are not taken into consideration, Brent prices are expected to move in the range of $60 - 70/bbl on the average for the second half of 2019. The price level will remain generally the same in 2020, and prices will remain low within a range of fluctuation. The main factors that can cause significant changes to this price outlook include supply disruptions and geopolitical risks such as tensions surrounding the Iran situation, which could lead to an increase in prices, and macroeconomic risks such as intensification of the U.S.-China trade war, which could cause prices to drop. In the high-price scenario with emerging geopolitical risks, prices are expected to reach the high level of $ 15/bbl from the standard level; in the low-price scenario with growing macroeconomic risks, prices are expected to reach a low of $ 10/bbl from the standard level.
机译：1.尽管2019年全球石油需求为1.003亿桶/天，但总供应量为1.020亿桶/天，其中非欧佩克产量为6440万桶/天，欧佩克产量为3580万桶/天，部分原因是下降在伊朗，委内瑞拉和其他国家生产。另一方面，尽管由于非欧佩克国家的产量增加（尤其是在美国），预计到2020年供应压力将增加，但需求和供应通常将保持平衡，约为每天1.01亿桶/天至1.02亿桶/天。 / d通过OPEC-plus调整。 2.基于上述供需平衡的前提，并且如果不考虑地缘政治风险和其他因素的影响，预计布伦特原油第二次均价将在60-70美元/桶的范围内波动2019年下半年。物价水平在2020年将基本保持不变，并且价格将在一定范围内保持较低水平。可能导致此价格前景发生重大变化的主要因素包括供应中断和地缘政治风险，例如围绕伊朗局势的紧张局势（可能导致价格上涨），以及宏观经济风险，例如中美贸易战加剧。可能导致价格下降。在出现新兴的地缘政治风险的高价情况下，价格有望从标准水平升至每桶15美元的高水平。在低价格的情况下，随着宏观经济风险的增加，价格预计将比标准水平低10美元/桶。

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  • 来源
    《IEEJ energy journal》 |2019年第4期|4-6|共3页
  • 作者

    Yoshihiro Hashizume;

  • 作者单位

    Secretary-General The Oil Information Center The Institute of Energy Economics Japan;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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