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>Overview Of Cafe Standards And The Estimation Of Petroleum Saving Potentials By Japanese Automobiles In The United States
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Overview Of Cafe Standards And The Estimation Of Petroleum Saving Potentials By Japanese Automobiles In The United States
This paper reviews the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards of the United States and analyzes how the tightening of fuel economy standards proposed by the 2007 Comprehensive Energy Bill (H.R. 6) and the growing sales share of Japanese automobiles in the U.S. market may reduce oil consumption. According to our estimation, if the fuel economy of all new automobiles sold in the United States improves steadily under the fuel economy standards proposed by the 2007 Comprehensive Energy Bill in compliance with the 35 mpg target, it will lead to the following results in 2020 (improvement from the reference scenario that assumes no alternative actions): reduction of oil consumption by 1.3 million B/D in 2020 (13% of the United States' crude oil import in 2006 and equivalent to the oil consumed by 21 million automobiles) as shown in Fig. 1, and the reduction of CO_2 emissions by 51 Mt-C in 2020 (3% of present emissions by the United States).rnAs to the petroleum saving and CO_2 abatement potentials achievable with Japanese cars, we estimate that if the fuel economy of new Japanese cars improves steadily to meet the 35 mpg target mandated by the 2007 Comprehensive Energy Bill, the contribution of Japanese automobiles will be as follows in 2020: reduction of oil consumption by 0.3-0.7 million B/D in 2020 (3-7% of the United States' crude oil import and equivalent to the amount of oil consumed by 4-11 million automobiles) and reduction of CO_2 emissions by 10-27 Mt-C in 2020 (3-8% of CO_2 emissions by Japan), depending on Japanese car sales share in USA. Furthermore, if the average fuel economy of new Japanese passenger cars in 2020 equals that of the current most fuel-efficient model (according to the Top Runner Approach of the Japanese government), the contribution of Japanese automobiles will be as follows in 2020 as shown in Fig. 2: reduction of oil consumption by 0.5-1.1 million B/D in 2020 (5-11% of the United States' crude oil import and equivalent to the amount of oil consumed by 8-17 million automobiles) and reduction of CO_2 emissions by 19-42 Mt-C in 2020 (5-12% of CO_2 emissions by Japan), depending on Japanese car sales share in USA.rnFor Japanese car manufacturers to expand their sales share in the international market, they must penetrate actively the existing markets in the United States and Europe and also the emerging markets in BRICs. While boosting their international competitiveness, Japanese manufacturers should utilize the excellent fuel economy and environmental performance of their cars as a kind of resource for ensuring global energy security and addressing global warming issues.
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