THE CHINA SYNDROME

VITALIY RATSENELSON

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THE CHINA SYNDROME

机译：中国综合症

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Most people are convinced by now chat there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next? The answer will depend on how much debt is in the system. The more debt infesting the system, the further and steeper asset price declines will be and the longer and more painful recovery will be. The official Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio is an unalarming 20 percent or so. But the true number is likely to be a lot greater, as it is hiding in-and off- the balance sheets of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and municipal governments, explicitly or implicitly guaranteed by the Chinese government.

机译：如今，大多数人都相信，聊天在中国存在着一个固定资产泡沫，濒临破裂。问题是，下一步是什么？答案将取决于系统中有多少债务。债务对系统的侵害越多，资产价格下降的幅度就越大，陡峭的复苏就越痛苦。中国官方的债务与GDP的比率令人震惊，约为20％。但是，实际数字可能更大，因为它隐藏在国有企业（SOE）和市政府的资产负债表内和资产负债表外，并由中国政府明确或隐含地担保。

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《Institutional investor》 |2012年第6期|21-21|共1页
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VITALIY RATSENELSON;
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THE CHINA SYNDROME

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