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The UK's banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis

机译：英国的银行业外国直接投资流量和英国外国直接投资总额：动态的英国退欧分析

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摘要

The City of London has been the global leader for the provision of international banking services since the 1980s when Thatcher-era deregulation, followed by the EU single market program, stimulated big international FDI inflows - mainly of US banks - into the UK. The "single passport" rule allowed international banks in the UK to serve the whole of the EU28 market from London whose supply-side dynamics contributed to economic growth in the UK and a rising output share of the UK banking system in British GDP. With the expected BREXIT, there are serious challenges for the City since the passporting of banks will end and the regulatory framework will be adjusted; EU equivalence rules for UK banks that might be valid after the implementation of BREXrr cannot be a substitute for passporting so that lower FDI inflows and higher FDI outflows in the banking sector should be expected; inflow dynamics should also be shaped by international M&A dynamics influenced by the real Pound depreciation in 2016, while the prospects of reduced EU market access post-BREXIT also became relevant in 2017/18 and should influence the FDI dynamics of the UK - a similar pattern might occur in the BREXIT implementation year (i.e. 2019) and the following adjustment period where the change in City banks' access to the single market will matter; as regards the latter, quasi-tariff-jumping FDI outflows from the UK can be expected where the FDI of City of London banks could go primarily to the EU27/Eurozone or the US. The empirical findings confirm the expected FDI pattern for the UK banking sector - overall FDI inflows in the wake of the BREXIT referendum have increased, in line with the Froot-Stein effect, while FDI inflows to the UK banking sector have declined.
机译：自1980年代以来，伦敦金融城一直是提供国际银行服务的全球领导者，当时撒切尔时代的放松管制以及随后的欧盟单一市场计划刺激了国际直接投资的大量流入，主要是美国银行向英国的流入。 “单一护照”规则允许英国的国际银行从伦敦为整个EU28市场提供服务，伦敦的供应方动态推动了英国的经济增长以及英国银行体系在英国GDP中的产出份额不断提高。随着英国脱欧的预期，伦敦金融城将面临严峻的挑战，因为银行的通行证将终止，监管框架将得到调整；实施BREXrr后可能对英国银行有效的欧盟对等规则不能替代通行证，因此，银行业的FDI流入量和FDI流出量应较高；流入动态也应受2016年英镑实际贬值影响的国际并购动态影响，而在BREXIT之后欧盟市场准入减少的前景也将在2017/18年变得相关，并应影响英国的FDI动态-类似的模式可能会在BREXIT实施年（即2019年）和随后的调整期中发生变化，这将影响到城市银行进入单一市场的机会的变化；关于后者，可以预料英国的准关税跳跃式外国直接投资流出，而伦敦金融城银行的外国直接投资可能主要流向欧盟27国/欧元区或美国。经验结果证实了英国银行业的预期FDI模式-英国脱欧公投后的整体FDI流入有所增加，与Froot-Stein效应相符，而流入英国银行业的FDI有所下降。

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