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Short Term Price Forecasting Using Adaptive Generalized Neuron Model

机译:自适应广义神经元模型的短期价格预测

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This article described how in the competitive deregulated electricity market forecasting has become one of the essential planning tool that assists the planners in preparing the power systems for future demands. The commercial success of the market players depends on their competitive bidding strategy which is suffuicient enough to meet the regulatory requirements and minimize the cost. Artificial neural networks due to their capability of non-linear mapping finds extensive application in the field of price forecasting. Although, they are extensively used as forecasting model, they have certain limitations which are detrimental to system performance. The training time of the artificial neural network is affected by the complexity of the system, and moreover, they require a large amount of data for complex problems. The worl presented in this article deals with the application of the generalized neuron model for forecasting the electricity price. The generalized neuron model overcomes the limitation of the conventional ANN. The electricity price of the New South Wales electricity market is forecast to test the performance of the proposed model. The free parameters of the proposed model are trained using fuzzy tuned genetic algorithms to increase efficacy of the model.
机译:本文介绍了在竞争激烈的放松管制的电力市场中,预测如何成为必不可少的计划工具之一,它可以帮助计划者为未来的需求准备电力系统。市场参与者的商业成功取决于他们的竞争性投标策略,该策略足以满足监管要求并最小化成本。人工神经网络由于其非线性映射功能而在价格预测领域得到了广泛的应用。尽管它们被广泛用作预测模型,但它们具有某些局限性,不利于系统性能。人工神经网络的训练时间受系统复杂性的影响,此外,对于复杂的问题,它们需要大量的数据。本文提出的问题涉及广义神经元模型在预测电价中的应用。广义神经元模型克服了传统人工神经网络的局限性。预测新南威尔士州电力市场的电价将测试所提议模型的性能。使用模糊调谐遗传算法训练提出的模型的自由参数,以提高模型的有效性。

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