• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>International journal of conflict management >Attractor landscapes and reaction functions in escalation and de-escalation
【24h】

Attractor landscapes and reaction functions in escalation and de-escalation

机译：升级和降级过程中的吸引者态势和反应功能

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast two formal models of escalation and de-escalation: the attractor landscape model and the S-shaped reaction function model. Also, the paper aims to enumerate conditions that affect the shape and location of reaction functions and, hence, the stability of less and more escalated states. Design/methodology/approach - Both models are presented together with geometric proofs of the main assertions of the second model. Overlap and comparative strengths of the models are reviewed. Parts of the social science literature are synthesized in a discussion of the antecedents of stability. Findings - Though derived from totally different traditions, these models are similar in their basic assumptions and predictions. Each model has value. The attractor landscape model is easier to grasp and contains a concept of resistance to escalation that is not found in the S-shaped reaction function model. The latter model looks at individual parties rather than the dyad as a whole and, thus, offers an explanation for most of the phenomena described by the former model. It also allows identification of many variables that affect the shape and location of reaction functions and, hence, can be viewed as antecedents of escalation and de-escalation. Research limitations/implications - Seven testable hypotheses are presented in the Conclusions section. Laboratory tasks for testing such hypotheses have yet to be developed and there is only one study employing real-life measures. However, it is clear that once research on these phenomena really begins, new variables will be found that moderate the strength of the effects hypothesized. Practical implications - The models provide concepts for thinking about how to avoid runaway escalation and promote runaway de-escalation. The variables mentioned in the hypotheses suggest ways to diminish the likelihood of runaway escalation and can also be used for constructing measures of the likelihood of that phenomenon. The theories also imply that when the likelihood of runaway escalation increases, disputants should be doubly careful to avoid initiating escalative behavior. Originality/value The article is original in that the S-shaped reaction function model is refined and further developed and the proofs are new. The comparison between the models is also new, as is most of the enumeration of conditions affecting the stability of low and high escalation. The value of the article is to provide concepts and theory for thinking about escalation and de-escalation, and testable hypotheses for studying these phenomena.
机译：目的-本文的目的是比较和对比两种形式的升级和降级模型：吸引子景观模型和S形反应函数模型。同样，本文旨在列举影响反应功能的形状和位置的条件，从而影响越来越少的逐步升级状态的稳定性。设计/方法/方法-两种模型都与第二种模型的主要主张的几何证明一起呈现。审查了模型的重叠和比较强度。社会科学文献的某些部分在讨论稳定性的先决条件时进行了综合。研究结果-尽管这些模型源自完全不同的传统，但是它们的基本假设和预测都相似。每个模型都有价值。吸引者景观模型更易于掌握，并且包含了S形反应函数模型中未发现的抵抗升级的概念。后一种模型着眼于各个政党，而不是整个家族，因此，对前一种模型所描述的大多数现象提供了解释。它还可以识别影响反应功能的形状和位置的许多变量，因此，可以将其视为升级和降级的先决条件。研究局限/含义-结论部分中提出了七个可检验的假设。检验这些假设的实验室任务尚未开发，只有一项研究采用现实生活中的方法。但是，很明显，一旦真正开始研究这些现象，就会发现新的变量，这些变量会缓和假设的影响强度。实际意义-这些模型提供了用于思考如何避免失控升级和促进失控降级的概念。假设中提到的变量提出了减少失控升级的可能性的方法，也可用于构建对该现象的可能性进行度量。这些理论还暗示，当失控升级的可能性增加时，争议各方应加倍小心，以免引发升级行为。独创性/价值本文的独创之处在于改进了S形反应函数模型并对其进行了进一步开发，并提供了新的证明。模型之间的比较也是新的，影响低和高升级稳定性的大多数条件枚举也是如此。本文的价值在于为思考升级和降级提供概念和理论，并为研究这些现象提供可验证的假设。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号