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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of critical infrastructure >Consequence modelling of the population risk exposure resulting from airborne toxic material released from rail cars within Toronto, Ontario
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Consequence modelling of the population risk exposure resulting from airborne toxic material released from rail cars within Toronto, Ontario

机译：安大略省多伦多市轨道车辆释放的空气中有毒物质导致的人口风险暴露的后果模型

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摘要

Rail transportation is commonly used to move toxic-by-inhalation chemicals throughout Canada, passing in close proximity to urban areas. These trains are vulnerable to accidents, sabotage and terrorism, with each scenario resulting in formidable consequences for nearby residents. Modelling of the airborne concentration distribution of chlorine gas released from a railcar in Toronto reveals that in a 'worst case' scenario, approximately 261,590 residents would be expected to experience severely irreversible and life-threatening health effects, including death. An event of this magnitude, stemming from a 10 cm diameter puncture hole in the side of the railcar -accidentally or intentionally caused - would cripple the response capacity of nearby hospitals, and unleash a cascading series of effects. Further, models of anhydrous ammonia and chlorine releases reveal that weather conditions and the incident timing can lead to multiple populations being affected, while the chemical characteristics play an important mitigation role in population risk exposure.
机译：铁路运输通常用于在整个加拿大范围内移动吸入有毒化学物质，并靠近市区。这些火车很容易发生事故，破坏和恐怖主义，每种情况都会给附近的居民带来可怕的后果。对多伦多有轨电车释放的氯气的空气中浓度分布进行建模后发现，在“最坏的情况”下，预计将有大约261,590名居民遭受不可逆转且危及生命的健康影响，包括死亡。如此严重的事件，是由有意或有意造成的铁路车侧面直径为10厘米的穿刺孔造成的，将会削弱附近医院的响应能力，并释放出一系列连锁反应。此外，无水氨和氯释放模型表明，天气条件和入射时间会导致多个人群受到影响，而化学特性在人群风险暴露中起着重要的缓解作用。

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