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Transition of energy infrastructures: modelling the Brazilian case

机译：能源基础设施的转型：巴西案例的建模

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摘要

Triggered by the distress around climate change and security of supply, European countries struggle to diversify their energy portfolio while producing less carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions, favouring a transition to avoid a system collapse. However, this situation is not new. Thirty years ago, prompted by two consecutive oil crises, Brazil started its transition to a less oil-dependent economy, and has now reached a relatively stable bio-ethanol economy. This paper analyses the historical transition of Brazil using a multidisciplinary systemic approach, where we portray transition dynamics at the agent layer, interaction layer and system layer, and demonstrate the relevance of information feedback. The shift of Brazil to a bio-ethanol economy was an objective-oriented transition wherein the government was the initiator of the transition process. We conclude that, despite the historical and geographical differences and the risks of a direct institutional transplantation, European countries can benefit from the lessons learned from the Brazilian experience.
机译：由围绕气候变化和供应安全的困境引发的欧洲国家努力使能源组合多样化，同时减少二氧化碳（CO_2）的排放，为避免系统崩溃而进行过渡。但是，这种情况并不新鲜。 30年前，在连续两次石油危机的推动下，巴西开始向石油依赖程度较低的经济过渡，如今已达到相对稳定的生物乙醇经济。本文采用多学科系统的方法分析了巴西的历史转型，我们在代理层，交互层和系统层刻画了转型动态，并证明了信息反馈的相关性。巴西向生物乙醇经济的转变是面向目标的过渡，其中政府是过渡过程的发起者。我们得出的结论是，尽管历史和地理上存在差异，并且存在直接机构移植的风险，但欧洲国家可以从巴西的经验教训中受益。

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    Catherine M. Chiong Meza; Gerard P.J. Dijkema;

  • 作者单位

    Energy & Industry Section Infrastructure Systems & Services Department Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology P.O. Box 5015, GA, Delft 2600, The Netherlands;

    Energy & Industry Section Infrastructure Systems & Services Department Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology P.O. Box 5015, GA, Delft 2600, The Netherlands;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    transition; bio-ethanol; Brazil;

    机译：过渡;生物乙醇巴西;

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