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A subjective methodology for risk quantification based on generalized fuzzy numbers

机译：基于广义模糊数的主观风险量化方法

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摘要

Uncertain information and domain experts' knowledge are inevitable in risk analysis of complex systems. Fuzzy reasoning is one of the ways to handle uncertainty. In addition, in order to represent the confidence degree of experts' subjective assessment, generalized fuzzy numbers are used for risk quantification in this paper. Based on the generalized fuzzy numbers arithmetic operation, a simple algorithm is developed to obtain final risk, which is also represented as generalized fuzzy number. A new similarity measure is proposed to determine the risk level. Compared with the previous works, our method is more reasonable. A numerical example is used to show the efficiency of the proposed method.
机译：在复杂系统的风险分析中，不确定的信息和领域专家的知识是不可避免的。模糊推理是处理不确定性的方法之一。另外，为了表示专家主观评估的置信度，本文采用广义模糊数进行风险量化。基于广义模糊数算术运算，开发了一种简单的算法来获得最终风险，也称为广义模糊数。提出了一种新的相似性度量来确定风险水平。与以前的工作相比，我们的方法更加合理。数值算例表明了该方法的有效性。

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