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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management >Modeling Technological Substitution by Incorporating Dynamic Adoption Rate
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Modeling Technological Substitution by Incorporating Dynamic Adoption Rate

机译：纳入动态采用率的技术替代模型

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摘要

Modeling diffusion dynamics of multi-generation innovation requires a critical examination of external factors that may affect its diffusion process. It has been observed that due to companies continuously varying marketing strategies, the adoption rate of an innovation alters with time. However, there are other factors such as the launch of a new competitive product or improved product generation, which may affect the growth of an innovation. The time-instance at which these changes are observed is called change-point. Motivated by this phenomenon, the present research identifies the launch of a new generation as a change-point where adoption function of the previous generation experiences a structural change. The objective of the current research is to improve the forecasting accuracy of a diffusion model for technological innovations by integrating essential factors that affect the diffusion process. From the findings of empirical analysis, it can be inferred that the proposed two-generational diffusion model illustrates the diffusion pattern of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) semiconductors remarkably well. In fact, the computed results show that the suggested model has better forecasting ability than previously established multi-generation models.
机译：对多代创新的扩散动力学建模需要对可能影响其扩散过程的外部因素进行严格检查。已经观察到，由于公司不断变化的营销策略，创新的采用率会随着时间而变化。但是，还有其他因素，例如新竞争产品的推出或产品的改进，可能会影响创新的增长。观察到这些更改的时间实例称为更改点。受此现象的启发，本研究将新一代的发布确定为一个转变点，其中前一代的采用功能经历了结构性变化。当前研究的目的是通过整合影响扩散过程的基本因素来提高技术创新扩散模型的预测准确性。从经验分析的结果可以推断出，提出的两代扩散模型很好地说明了动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）半导体的扩散模式。实际上，计算结果表明所建议的模型比以前建立的多代模型具有更好的预测能力。

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