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Evaluation of forecasting models for air cargo

机译：航空货运预测模型的评估

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Purpose - Virgin Atlantic Cargo is one of the largest air freight operators in the world. As part of a wider strategic development initiative, the company has identified forecasting accuracy as of strategic importance to its operational efficiency. This is because accurate forecast enables the company to have the right resources available at the right place and time. The purpose of this paper is to undertake an evaluation of current month-to-date forecasting utilized by Virgin Atlantic Cargo. The study employed demand patterns drawn from historical data on chargeable weight over a seven-year-period covering six of the company's routes. Design/methodology/approach - A case study is carried out, where a comparison between forecasting models is undertaken using error accuracy measures. Data in the form of historical chargeable weight over a seven-year-period covering six of the company's most profitable routes are employed in the study. For propriety and privacy reasons, data provided by the company have been sanitized. Findings - Preliminary analysis of the time series shows that the air cargo chargeable weight could be difficult to forecast due to demand fluctuations which appear extremely sensitive to external market and economic factors. Originality/value - The study contributes to existing literature on air cargo forecasting and is therefore of interest to scholars examining the problems of overbooking. Overbooking which is employed by air cargo operators to hedge against "no-show" bookings. However, the inability of air cargo operators to accurately predict cargo capacity unlikely to be used implies that operators are unable to establish with an aspect of certainty their revenue streams. The research methodology adopted is also predominantly discursive in that it employs a synthesis of existing forecasting literature and real-life data for accuracy analysis.
机译：目的-维珍航空货运公司是世界上最大的航空货运公司之一。作为更广泛的战略发展计划的一部分，该公司已将预测准确性确定为对其运营效率具有战略重要性。这是因为准确的预测使公司能够在正确的时间和地点拥有正确的资源。本文的目的是对维珍航空货运公司使用的当前月初预测进行评估。这项研究采用了需求模式，该模式是从过去7年的收费重量历史数据中得出的，涵盖了公司的6条路线。设计/方法/方法-进行了案例研究，其中使用误差准确性度量对预测模型进行了比较。这项研究采用了七年历史收费权重形式的数据，涵盖了公司最赚钱的六条路线。出于礼节和隐私原因，公司提供的数据已被清理。调查结果-对时间序列的初步分析显示，由于需求波动对航空货运的可计费重量可能很难预测，而需求波动对外部市场和经济因素极为敏感。原创性/价值-该研究为有关航空货运预测的现有文献做出了贡献，因此对于研究超量预订问题的学者很感兴趣。航空货运经营者雇用超额预订来对冲“未出现”的预订。但是，航空货运运营商无法准确预测不太可能使用的货运量，这意味着运营商无法确定地确定其收入来源。所采用的研究方法也具有很大的话语性，因为它采用了现有预测文献和真实数据的综合来进行准确性分析。

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