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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of monetary economics and finance >Does the policy trilemma still hold? Fresh evidence and its implications
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Does the policy trilemma still hold? Fresh evidence and its implications

机译：政策困境仍然存在吗？新证据及其含义

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摘要

Economic success of any nation intrinsically hinges on the tradeoff between external policy choices and their internal consequences. An enduring challenge that countries confront is the 'trilemma' of choices between three desirable, yet jointly unattainable objectives of maintaining a fixed exchange rate regime, unfettered cross-border capital flows and monetary policy independence. This study examines the extent of monetary autonomy for over 130 nations spanning the period 1999-2011. Using both pooled cross-sectional as well as time series analyses I find more loss of monetary sovereignty for fixed regimes than non-fixed ones, supporting the trilemma's predictions. However, I do note this difference is only marginal and several floaters exhibit 'fear of floating' behaviour allowing sufficient transmission of foreign interest rates. Finally, I examine the macroeconomic consequences of the three tenets of the trilemma. I find higher monetary independence, greater capital openness as well as greater regime flexibility to promote economic stability.
机译：任何国家的经济成功本质上都取决于外部政策选择与其内部后果之间的权衡。各国面临的一个持久挑战是在保持固定汇率制度，不受约束的跨境资本流动和货币政策独立性这三个理想的，但共同无法实现的目标之间做出选择的“两难选择”。这项研究调查了1999年至2011年期间130多个国家的货币自治程度。使用合并的横截面分析和时间序列分析，我发现固定政权的货币主权损失比非固定政权的货币主权损失更多，这支持了三难的预测。但是，我确实注意到，这种差异只是微不足道的，而且一些浮动利率证券表现出“恐惧浮动”行为，从而可以充分转移外国利率。最后，我考察了三难的三个原则的宏观经济后果。我发现更高的货币独立性，更大的资本开放性以及更大的政权灵活性可以促进经济稳定。

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