Comparative assessment of forecasts

E. G. JOHN

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Comparative assessment of forecasts

机译：预测的比较评估

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摘要

A novel analysis method for deciding upon, and improving, the comparative goodness of competing forecast methods is described. The approach is based upon the centred forecast observation diagram of change, which has been extended to include measures of analysis and supplemented with the recently developed measures of comparative error described in this contribution. The method has application in any situation where there is a need to undertake comparison of competing forecasting methods or where comparative assessments of a given variable are to be undertaken. The method is simple to understand and apply and has proven to be extremely useful in improving focus on deficiencies in forecasting methods.

机译：描述了一种决定和提高竞争性预测方法的相对优势的新颖分析方法。该方法基于以变化为中心的预测观察图，该图已扩展为包括分析方法，并以本贡献中描述的最新开发的比较误差方法作为补充。该方法适用于需要比较竞争性预测方法或需要对给定变量进行比较评估的任何情况。该方法易于理解和应用，并且已被证明在提高对预测方法缺陷的关注方面非常有用。

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来源
《International Journal of Production Research》 |2004年第5期|p.997-1008|共12页
作者
E. G. JOHN;
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作者单位

Systems Division, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 0YF, UK;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类管理学;
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Comparative assessment of forecasts

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